Numbers from Election 2006. Possible 2008 targets

The Green Papers has a huge table of election info here.

Here's some info from that table:

The Dems won the House Popular vote 52/46.

And Under the Fold, I'll go over the club of candidates who didn't spend $100K but still got over 40% of the vote.

As well, a few big spenders, third party all-stars, and hapless Republicans will be noted.

And i'll produce a short targets list too.

Challengers who spent the least money and recieved over 40% (The Under 100K Club)

Thomas Shaw (D, OH-16): $0 spent, 41.36% of the vote [against Regula]
Frank Gonzalez (D, FL-21): $16,430 spent, 40.53% of the vote [against Diaz-Balart]
Michael Calderin (D, FL-25): $35,287 spent, 41.53% of the vote [against the other Diaz-Balart]
Sharon Renier (D, MI-07): $55,682 spent, 46.40% of the vote [against Wally Walberg]
Ted Ankrum (D, TX-10): $72,061 spent, 40.37% of the vote [against McCaul]
Eric Dickerson (R, IN-07): $76,591 spent, 46.29% of the vote [against Julia Carson]
Steven Porter (D, PA-03): $81,086 spent, 42.08% of the vote [against Phil English]
John Russell (D, FL-05): $89,635 spent, 40.15% of the vote [against Ginny Brown-Waite]
Charles Dertinger (D, PA-15): $90,172 spent, 44.13% of the vote [against Charles Dent]
Tony Trupiano (D, MI-11): $90,918 spent, 42.9% of the vote [against Thad McCotter]
Chad Kluko (D, PA-18): $95,320 spent, 42.11% of the vote [against Tim Murphy]

Highest Dollars Spent to Votes ratio

David McSweeney (R, IL-08): $70.44 spent for every vote recieved ($5M spent, 72398 votes recieved)

Vern Buchanan (R, FL-13): $67.81 spent for every vote recieved ($8M spent, 119309 votes recieved)

Tammy Duckworth (D, IL-06): $52.93 spent for every vote recieved ($4.5M spent, 85398 votes recieved)

Darcy Burner (D, WA-08): $51.97 spent for every vote recieved ($3M spent, 59268 votes recieved)

Melissa Bean (D, IL-08): $50.40 spent for every vote recieved ($4M spent, 84795 votes recieved)

Best Showings by Third Parties (General Election Edition):

Jim Noorlander (Constitution, UT-03): 14116 votes (8.82%) [against Cannon]
Tom Kelly (Green, CO-01): 25096 votes (20.67%) [No Republican ran here]
Tammy Lee (Independence Party of MN): 51456 votes (21.04%) [against Keith Ellison]
Rod Driver (Independent, RI-02): 52,574 (27.32%) [No Republican ran here]
Jason Blair (Libertarian, AZ-06): 38230 votes (25.92%) [No Democrat ran here]
Joe Viscusi (NPA, FL-12): 34976 votes (19.42%) [No Democrat ran here]
Ed Bowlin (NPA, FL-12): 20636 votes (11.46%) [No Democrat ran here]
Eric Eidsness (Reform, CO-04): 25880 votes (11.33%) [Cost Paccione the election]

Worst Showings by Republicans:

Ali Mohamed (NY-16): 2383 votes (4.46%) [against Serrano]
Jonathan Anderson (NY-10): 4469 votes (6.04%) [against Clarke]
Edward Daniels (NY-15): 6326 votes (6.18%) [against Rangel]
Steve Finger (NY-7): 7227 votes (7.83%) [against Towns, I think]
Michael Gessner (PA-2): 16823 votes (9.21%) [against Fattah]

Least Likely to Give Investment Advice:

Mike Denunzio (R, CA-08): Spent $149,442 and recieved 19800 votes (10.72%) in his race against Nancy Pelosi.

Deborah Honeycutt (R, GA-13): Spent $1,297,301 and recieved 45770 votes (30.76%) in her race against David Scott.

Vernon Robinson (R, NC-13): Spent $2,012,169 and recieved 56,120 votes (36.29%) in his crazy deluded race against Brad Miller

Incumbents who found ways to spend money somehow:

Rangel spent almost $2M, hopefully in the form of sending money to other candidates. Hoyer, Joe Crowley, and John Dingell also passed the plate over to other candidates. We hope. None of them spent $39M though.

Republicans who did that same thing include Spencer Bachus ($1.6M spent), Bobby Jindal ($2.9M spent), and Richard Baker ($1.4M spent). Bachus was unopposed. Jindal won 89%. Baker faced a Libertarian.

Here's some targets too.

OH-16 is worth targeting. No matter what Regula does, career move-wise.

Perhaps going for the South Florida districts held by the Diaz-Balarts could work, no matter how daunting it will be.

Somebody needs to be elbowed at the DCCC if they're writing off MI-07 or PA-15.

Random Note to close out the diary: The only Senate candidates to outspend an incumbent Senator were Jim Pederson, Ned Lamont, Pete Ricketts, and Sheldon Whitehouse. Whitehouse was the only winner, and the only non self-financer too.

Ok, that's all

•  Tip Bucket

  I'm going to bed. Cya.

  by RBH on Wed Dec 20, 2006 at 01:55:15 AM PDT

•  John Laesch came close

  to breaking the 40% barrier with NO money against Dennis Hastert in the IL-14.    He might be a great place to start in going after the seat in 08.  

  by DWG on Wed Dec 20, 2006 at 02:27:25 AM PDT

  •  actually, Laesch did break 40%

    but he spent over 100k (He raised 172k on Act Blue alone).

    I gave, I helped; anyone who takes on Hastert is a minor hero.  

    But I think if we are going to win that district we need someone more polished.  That might be Laesch in '08, but I am guessing someone else will step up if Hastert retires.  

    by lawyerDan on Wed Dec 20, 2006 at 04:57:16 AM PDT

    •  I had not realized he raised that much

      I was more aware of his finances before Tom Foley than after the scandal broke.  Laesch has energy in abundance but may need a course in curb your enthusiasm - he scaring the exurbanites in eastern Kane.  Hard to argue with what he had to say during the campaign.  

      My sentimental favorite in IL for 08 is Christine Cegelis in IL-06 against Roskam.  

      by DWG on Wed Dec 20, 2006 at 08:36:28 AM PDT

•  The South Florida Districts

  When the Cuban embargo ends, presumably with the imminent passing of Fidel, the loyal GOP Cuban population of south Florida may be more friendly to the Democrats.

  by Winston Sm1th on Wed Dec 20, 2006 at 02:44:35 AM PDT

•  Interesting information

  Thanks for posting it.

  Those members of the under 100K club are impressive. We should keep a eye on those districts next election and make sure they have the resources to get an additional ten percent.

  by Green Zombie on Wed Dec 20, 2006 at 03:11:07 AM PDT

•  Kos linked to this diary...

  over at MyDD earlier today.  Why don't you post this information over there so Democraticavenger can use it in his analysis of the top 50 races for 2008?

  Here's the link:
  http://www.mydd.com/...

  by Susan S on Wed Dec 20, 2006 at 03:15:31 AM PDT

•  Eric Dickerson (R, IN-07)

  was helped by confusion with the former Indianapolis Colts running back of the same name.

  by davybaby on Wed Dec 20, 2006 at 04:27:16 AM PDT

  •  Huh

    I thought that he actually WAS that Eric Dickerson. But I was wondering why the press wasn't making a big deal of it, when they did make a pretty big deal of Lynn Swann running for Governor of Pennsylvania.

    by metal prophet on Wed Dec 20, 2006 at 05:47:35 AM PDT

•  Very cool info

  thanks for posting, recommended

  by plf515 on Wed Dec 20, 2006 at 05:53:43 AM PDT

•  The numbers for Burner are incorrect

  The vote total numbers listed in my race are incorrect -- I received 122,021 votes (see http://vote.wa.gov), so my $ per vote is less than half of what is shown here.  I think what they're doing at the Green Papers is a very good idea, but it would be good to get official vote and $ totals (they're using early media reports, instead, so places where polls closed late or voting took awhile appear to be incorrect) -- and it might also be informative to look at independent expenditures when thinking about things like $ per vote.

  by Darcy Burner for Congress on Wed Dec 20, 2006 at 02:41:42 PM PDT

  •  Hm

    Yeah, hopefully that gets modified soon.

    That probably puts Peter Roskam on the "big spender" list too.

    by RBH on Wed Dec 20, 2006 at 05:22:32 PM PDT

•  Diaz-Balart

  As much as I'd love to see these 2 seats switch, the demographics make this highly unlikely. CD21 has a 42.0%-33.% Republican registration advantage and CD25 is 39.3%-33.5%.

  The BIG obstacle, however, is the Hispanic registration in CD21 is 57.8% and 53.4% in CD25. And in south Florida you are far more likely to see Republican support in the Hispanic community.

  by kansasr on Thu Dec 21, 2006 at 06:43:07 PM PDT