Right before I leave for my vacation (Christmas in Hot Springs Arkansas and New Year's in Pittsburgh Pennsylvania), let me list the lessons I've learned from the 2006 elections.
Crossposted at my site.
Check them out on the flip.
- Even in a Democratic wave year, Republicans in marginal or Democratic districts can hold on if their opponents are less than stellar, like from what we saw of Patricia Madrid in the debate in NM-01.
- Just because the Governor and/or Senator wins in a landslide does not mean that all vulnerable districts held by the opposite party in that state flip, as we saw with the Spitzer/Clinton landslides in New York flipping only three of the six competitive Republican House seats.
- Gerrymandering can help, as we saw in OH-01 and OH-15, but just because a district is gerrymandered heavily in favor of one party does not mean that they are safe forever. Just ask Richard Pombo and John DooLittle!
- Politicians that have had a major drop in popularity the year before they're up for reelection can make a remarkable turnaround and win in just six short months if they play their cards right, like I saw back home in California.
- Grassroots work! A lot of pundits considered Jerry McNerney in CA-11 and Carol Shea-Porter in NH-01 to be extreme longshots, but immense support from the grassroots put both over the top, proving that the national party-endorsed candidates do not always win.
- Pay more attention to polls and buzz from races not on the pundits' radar screens that have polls that show those races to be very close. One of my resolutions on this matter is when I hear buzz of a possibly competitive race, I will research the district and try to get in contact with friends on blogs which I visit often.
- The rural strategy works. Just ask Claire McCaskill and Ciro Rodriguez. To all my Texas friends out there: The countryside will be a less tough nut to crack than the Houston and Dallas suburbs. Let's get cracking in 2008 for the Senate race!
Just some words of wisdom for everyone that was shocked by what was forecasted to happen that didn't, and what wasn't forecasted to happen that did. See everyone next year!