In the last three days, Senator Edwards has had town hall meetings in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Today, he will hold a town hall meeting in South Carolina, then a homecoming rally in North Carolina. I was at the event in Iowa and will be at the event in Chapel Hill, where I live, today. So, from my own personal experience I have idea of how big the crowds have been and will be, but I also was sitting with the press and have some idea of how they "estimate" crowd size in the press pool. So, when I see this in the press, I take it with a grain of salt.
Nearly a quarter of the crowd of more than 800 were left standing outside in 30-degree temperatures after the elementary school cafeteria where Edwards was to speak quickly filled up.
Why do I take it with a grain of salt? Because the staff and security estimated that there were close to 1000 inside the event and 1000 that were turned away or listened outside of the event. The AP reporter, Holly Ramer goes on to make a big deal of the 1500 that attended an event with Obama, yet underestimates the size of the Edwards crowd simultaneously.
In Iowa, where I was, I found these two conflicting accounts. First, this one.
John Edwards, the Democratic Party's pick in 2004 for vice president, made it official on Thursday -- he's running for his party's 2008 presidential nomination. Edwards held a "town hall meeting" in Des Moines late Thursday afternoon. Edwards walked into the hall to the song "Times Like These" by the Foo Fighters, then Edwards told the crowd of over 1,500 that it was good to be back. "It's even better to be back as a candidate for the presidency of the United States of America," Edwards said.
then,this one:
The former one-term North Carolina senator issued the formal apology to more than 200 Iowans and those watching the town hall meeting on Edwards' Web cast.
Now, why the huge difference in numbers? Some of that has to do with how the reporters get the numbers. As I was live-blogging the Iowa event, I overheard two reporters who talking about how many people were at the event. The conversation went something like:
"How many people do you think are here?"
"I don't know, you?"
"Maybe a thousand I guess?"
"Really?"
I was busy at the time but remembered this and kept it in mind when I talked with the staff later. I asked them the same question, "How many people do you think are here?"
Their response was...
"The security people say about 1500."
Now, I don't know what the final number coming out of the campaign is, but I trust the security that works these kinds of events, and has to keep an eye out for fire code regulations.
Back to the New Hampshire event, which AP reported as being 800. First, I wasn't there, but I have seen these great pictures from Aldon Hayes...
This is the outside crowd, those that stuck around after being told they wouldn't be able to get in - then Senator Edwards spontaneously came out with a mic to say hello and give his stump speech.
The Washington Post had this to say...
Well over 1,000 people turned out Thursday night in Des Moines, and a crowd of that size or slightly larger showed up for his town hall meeting Friday in Portsmouth, where several hundred were turned away because there was no room.
WHY ALL THIS CONFUSION!!!
I'll tell you why, because everyone has underestimated the strength of the Edwards campaign, including, it seems, the campaign. They were expecting, during the holiday season, to have about 500 in Iowa - they got 1500. The new rules on phone calling in New Hampshire, the holidays, and this (again from Washington Post) Edwards rarely drew crowds that large in New Hampshire in 2004, except during the final few days of the primary campaign, and only after finishing a surprising second in Iowa, led them to believe they would probably draw about 500 - they drew in about 1500 again. In Reno, they had 2500 people show up for the rally and I don't want to go out on a limb here, but I've heard rumors of more than that number of tickets having been printed out in North Carolina.
The news cycle has been brutal on the campaign, the sad death of President Ford, the unexpected execution of Saddam Hussein, who says the holidays are a down time for news. So, you can expect the traditional media won't give this incredible turnout the response that it deserves, but I hope that those of us who use the internet as our primary source of news will. The Edwards campaign is off to a rock star start.