21 GOP Senators are up for re-election in '08 compared to only 12 Democrats. What can these GOP Senators do to avoid a complete collapse of the GOP in 2008. There are few options and that light at the end of the tunnel in Iraq is looking more and more like a train.
Alexander Tennessee
Allard Colorado
Chambliss Georgia
Cochran Mississippi
Coleman Minnesota
Collins Maine
Cornyn Texas
Craig Idaho
Dole North Carolina
Domenici New Mexico
Enzi Wyoming
Graham South Carolina
Hagel Nebraska
Inhofe Oklahoma
McConnell Kentucky
Roberts Kansas
Sessions Alabama
Smith Oregon
Stevens Alaska
Sununu New Hampshire
Warner Virginia
By this time next year, the campaigns for these Senators will have come into focus. We will know who is going to stand for re-election. We will know many (not all) of their opposing candidates. We will know how their donor community is responding to their re-election bid. We will have a general idea who is vulnerable and who is not.
How many of these Republican Senators are going to run on a pro-Bush platform? If they don’t want to have to defend Bush, what are they going to do in the next year to distance themselves from him. Hagel from Nebraska and Smith from Oregon have already taken steps to show their independence from Bush. For Smith, much more will be necessary to save himself.
Some of these Senators such as Cochran and Sessions may feel so safe that they don’t need to take any action. Some of the Senators such as Inhofe and Stevens probably don’t have the cerebral capacity to see the danger. But a majority of these 21 Senators surely see the political dangers that face them and their party. Perhaps they cannot fully appreciate what it would mean to lose 10-12 seats, but it is assured that they don’t want to see that come to pass.
I see only three things that could save most of these Senators: a happy ending to the Iraq war (I will need some help envisioning that); a quick ending to the Iraq war (like...in 4-6 months); some other blockbusting action that shows with absolute clarity a break with the White House.
What is that other blockbusting action? It might be different things for different Senators. But it is not going to be some speech on the Senate Floor condemning some White House action. They are going to have to put some feeling into it.
The only kind of action I can think of right now is an impeachment vote. Either Bush or Cheney. Maybe both.
I am not saying that it will happen. All I’m saying is that unless there is a happy ending to the Iraq war, or a fairly rapid departure from Iraq, very little else will provide these 21 Senators with the kind of political cover necessary to defend against a furious attack from the Democrats.
2006 was a watershed year in which a large number of Republican Congressional incumbents and an amazing number of Republican Senators were defeated over the Iraq War. 2008 will be more like shooting fish in a barrel—unless those Republicans take action right away.
This is probably the best argument against impeachment I can think of. Investigate like crazy. Get all the facts out. But don’t allow the GOP to register an official rebuke of the administration. Let them hang out to dry in 2008.