Update: I totally screwed up the September results. They have been fixed. The post has been updated accordingly.
Zogby's latest poll out of NH
is a stunner. (September results)
Dean 40 (30)
Undecided 19 (22)
Kerry 17 (20)
Clark 6 (10)
Edwards 6 (2)
Gephardt 4 (6)
Lieberman 3 (5)
Sharpton 1 (1)
Other 4 (4)
Zogby says:
This is stunning. Dean leads 43-20 among Democrats and 35 to 11 among Independents. He hits 40 among all age groups, union and non-union voters. His lead is 57-17 among self-described progressives, 50-20 among liberals, and 34-14 among moderates. Married voters give him a 38-13 edge and singles a 45-21 point lead. He holds huge leads among all education groups, among investors and non-investors, men and women. This qualifies as juggernaut status. Can he be stopped?
Beside the Dean's numbers, the Clark's numbers are quite interesting. The "Clark bounce" has ebbed, and his lack of campaigning has clearly hurt his standing. Unless he can turn his NH numbers around, his decision to pull out of Iowa will look particularly rash and premature.
Edwards continues his slow but steady gains, seen now in just about all of his latest state polls (his nationals continue to lag). He still looks like the strongest bet for that all-important third-place NH finish. Clark is obviously not out of it, but his momentum is negative, while Edwards has been on the upswing. Edwards is also the only candidate not named Dean to improve his favorable/unfavorable numbers from September.
Gep is not out of the running for that third spot either, but given his must-win situation in Iowa, expect him to spend little time in the Granite State.