With leaners, it's Kerry 47, Bush 46.
Among likely voters (and who knows what the fuck that means), it's Bush 47, Kerry 46.
Bush's approval is at 44 percent. If his approval rating is this low on Election Day, he's going down for certain.
Article here (NY Times, registration required). Click on the "Interactive" link on the right for the internals (it's a 42 page PDF file).