In my last prediction, I raised my estimated probability that George W Bush wins in November to 85%. FIVE CHANCES IN SIX. I stick with that.
In my last poll, only 50 of you voted, but half felt Kerry would lose to Bush. 20% of you thought I am way off base. Try again below.
I think Bush gets at least 270 electoral college votes, but more likely somewhere between 280-290 EC votes.
However, I think the popular vote will be around 52:48%, with Bush actually winning a majority.
The reason for this outlook is my opinion that Kerry will
not win OHIO and FLORIDA, one of which is required in almost every winning scenario.
Further, in an unrelated event, Oregonians turned down Measure 30 (tax increase) 60:40. State funding of education and health care programs will have to be cut by $544 million. This event suggests Oregonians are shifting to conservative politics, and will vote Republican in November.
I had Oregon as leaning Democrat. Now, I move it to leaning Republican. I don't think Kerry will win there.
Kerry has the wrong makeup for the coming election. In yesterday's Wall St Journal Question of the Day (not a scientific poll), the overwhelming majority of respondents say they take little or no notice of military records in selecting a President. I interpret this to mean those likely to vote conservative are not impressed by Kerry's military credentials.
By next Fall, the biggest issue will be jobs lost in a sluggish economy, and jobs sent overseas. This is not an area in which Kerry has many selling points. Those who are supporting Kerry based on one or two matchup polls are making a big mistake. There is no valid current measure of Kerry's "electability."
The Bushies are causing serious economic problems. The trouble is, those problems are unlikely to hit before the election. Moreoever, they are poorly understood by those who do not make business and financial decisions; i.e., most of the electorate. It's hard to explain the interactions of the trade deficit, the deficit, the dollar's value, etc etc etc
If I am wrong, and Bush loses, it will be on account of Bush's miscalculations. I hope Bush loses, but believe that's Bush's choice.
My opinions suggest that election strategy should focus on winning the Senate, at least until next September. We won't have realistic assessments of the Presidential contest until then.