Yesterday, we discussed the apparent relationship between population growth, available water resources, and occurrence of war in a given country (as either aggressor or target of aggression). See
Pt 1,
Pt 2, and
Pt 3 here.
When applied to 2005, the method captures most of the current battle space of the war on terror and loosely-affiliated conflicts, such as Iraq and Sudan. But what really gets the noodle turning is that the same method, applied to the year 1940, describes the battle space in both the Pacific and European theaters of World War II.
Having forecast the shape of wars to come in the 21st century, I decided to see at what point in time, and in what states, water scarcity puts the pinch on peace and tranquility here at home.
Using more detailed hydrographic data, compliments of our very own U.S. Geological Survey, I decided to see what the future holds for our fine United States, given how compelling the model depicts the global historical experience.
There are few surprises. What this discussion tells is when (a) people start feeling the pinch, and (b) when that pinch starts to drive them to distraction, and the various governments of the land face very painful choices on how to maintain order...and save (or triage) lives.
2005......2010......2015......2020......2025..........2030......2035......2040......2045......2050..
....
Calif.....Calif.....Calif.....Calif.....Idaho.........Calif.....Calif.....Calif.....Calif.....Calif.
....
Florida...Florida...N. Mex....N. Mex....Nevada........Arizona...Arizona...Arizona...Arizona...Arizona...
N. Mex....N. Mex....Florida...Florida...Arizona.......N. Mex....N. Mex....N. Mex....N. Mex....N. Mex....
Texas.....Texas.....Texas.....Texas.....N. Mex........Idaho.....Idaho.....Idaho.....Idaho.....Idaho.....
Wash......Wash......Arizona...Arizona...Wash..........Florida...Florida...Florida...Florida...Florid
a...
Arizona...Arizona...Wash......Wash......Florida.......Texas.....Texas.....Texas.....Texas.....Texas.
....
Idaho.....Idaho.....Idaho.....Idaho.....Texas.........Wash......Wash......Wash......Wash......Wash..
....
Georgia...Georgia...Georgia...Georgia...Georgia.......Nevada....Nevada....Nevada....Nevada....Nevada
....
Virginia..Virginia..Virginia..Virginia..N. Carol......Utah......Utah......Utah......Utah......Utah......
N. Carol..N. Carol..Nevada....Nevada....N. Hampshire..Georgia...Georgia...Georgia...Georgia...Georgia...
2055......2060......2065......2070......2075..........2080......2085......2090......2095......2100..
....
Calif.....Calif.....Calif.....Calif.....Calif.........N. Mex....Florida...Wash......Nevada....Nevada....
Arizona...Arizona...Arizona...Arizona...Arizona.......Florida...Texas.....Nevada....Hawaii....Hawaii
....
N. Mex....N. Mex....N. Mex....N. Mex....N. Mex........Texas.....Wash......Hawaii....Utah......Utah......
Idaho.....Idaho.....Idaho.....Idaho.....Idaho.........Wash......N. Mex....Utah......Florida...Wash......
Florida...Florida...Florida...Florida...Florida.......Idaho.....Nevada....Idaho.....Georgia...Georgi
a...
Texas.....Texas.....Texas.....Texas.....Texas.........Nevada....Hawaii....Georgia...N. Mex....Colorado..
Wash......Wash......Wash......Wash......Wash..........Utah......Utah......Colorado..Colorado..N. Carol..
Nevada....Nevada....Nevada....Nevada....Nevada........Georgia...Calif.....N. Carol..Calif.....Virginia..
Utah......Utah......Utah......Utah......Utah..........Colorado..Georgia...Virginia..N. Carol..Idaho.....
Georgia...Georgia...Georgia...Georgia...Georgia.......N. Carol..Colorado..Texas.....Virginia..Texas.....
Onset of Critical Water Scarcity
As covered elsewhere, the war behavior of countries is significantly affected by water scarcity.
This critical threshold is projected to be surpassed for the following states, at or near the following years:
2025 - Arizona, Idaho
2030 - California
2035 - Florida, Texas, New Mexico, Washington
2050 - Nevada
2080 - Georgia, Utah
2085 - North Carolina
2100 - Colorado, Hawaii
California poses interesting challenges, for the sheer size of the population (c. 51 MM in the year 2030).
Nevada is a daunting case, given that all of its immediate neighbors are dry states, as well.
Hawaii, in the midst of vast Pacific Ocean, has no recourse at all, though just to the north are several vast abyssal plains...and deep ocean water is far less saline than surface water.
Just a friendly suggestion to any aspiring billionaires out there: don't desalinate water from the continental shelves -- go for the good stuff. That, and it's already refrigerated.
Likely recourse to water scarcity
For a large, powerful and populous state like California, enjoying considerable leverage in the Federal government, the presumed recourse would be to lobby for more of other states' water. However, the recent trends have been toward the Mountain states keeping more and more of their own water to underwrite their own development.
Another possibility is to build more ambitious infrastructure to support the water needs of thirsty states; deep aquifers (if there are any), rationing, development of alternatives to water for industrial purposes, etc. However, at the day people, animals, crops and a wide range of commercial applications require water, or they don't continue.
Then there is emigration, the relocation of large populations from places with water scarcity to places with plenty of same. In the year 2100, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and (duh) Michigan will still have plenty of water. Iowa, Kentucky, Alaska, Ohio, Wisconsin, and New York won't be too bad off, either. Then there is always favorite punching-bag, Canada...though the Canadians will probably be much more selective on whom they allow into their country, finally coming into their own as the world's hydrological superpower.
The 800lb gorilla in the room
Mexico will be distressed by water scarcity long before the United States is threatened. Water scarcity in Mexico may produce a (brace yourself) surge in immigration, much of it unregulated, none of it welcome, into border states. This will ramp up the schedule, moving emergent water scarcity to the full monty.
This may lead to a worsening of relations between the US and Mexico; since it is doubtful that Mexico has the means to choose war with the United States in order to obtain more water resources, the scenarios are either a southward expansion into Central America, the development of water-manufacturing technology of such worth as to make Mexico again supreme in North America, descent in civil war, which would impel American involvement of one form or another -- or outright conquest from the Norteamericanos.
And now for the 1200lb polar bear
While cold, Canada has water resources for a whopping 400MM people, and that's only counting the stuff that's liquid during the summer. This is a resource that has several fates: (a) sale to the USA, since water isn't easily transported over water; (b) annexation by the USA, since the US at the moment possesses a commanding military advantage and will soon have need of those resources, (c) use by scores of millions of brand new Canadians, all those folks who decide that they are tired waiting in line for overpriced pharmaceuticals, like mayonaise on everything and fights at every hockey game, and think that being cold and free is better than being scared and thirsty.