First of all, let's state the obvious about these debates: they aren't really debates. Winning on points doesn't matter at all. Winning on the issues is . . . well . . . it's OK, I guess, but not important. What's important is to win the style points. Don't sweat, or sigh, or look at your watch, or confuse Eastern and Western Europe. But, all that said, I think there's a way for Kerry to win this first, and most important, debate.
The GOP's main stylistic attack on Kerry is as a patrician flip-flopper, a weakling legislator against the manly executive, GW Bush. Conversely, they are trying to sell Bush as the ultimate tough-guy in a dangerous world (the stern-daddy protector). But, since this is almost exactly opposite reality, Kerry can turn this around in the debate . . .
As Al Gore pointed out in his profile in the New Yorker, George W. Bush is actually a very weak man. But he hates that about himself, so he tries desperately to project this macho, cowboy image, always out mendin' his fences at the ranch and telling the "evil-doers" to "bring it on" while he sits in the Oval Office. So, Kerry should subtly attack that image, both in Bush and of Bush by the voters.
The way to do it is simple. In absolutely every answer, work in some reference to "courage" or "strength" when explaining what should be done differently. For example, "we need a President with the courage to look Americans in the eye and tell them what's really going on." Or, "it takes strength to admit when a policy needs to be adjusted. That's what we need to do." And, "it's not easy telling people they've done a bad job and need to be replaced, but, as President, you've just got to stand up to the tough situations." Just keep up a steady drumbeat of "strength" and "courage" and "toughness" in contrast to what's going on now. And do it calmly. Don't act like it's an attack. It's just the way it is.
This does two things. First, Kerry really does project toughness in situations like this, so it'll reassure voters. But, most of all, it'll drive Bush completely nuts. He can't handle anyone impugning his tough-guy self-image. A steady drumbeat of subtle, indirect jabs at him would, at the least, rattle him off his game, and it may just make him go yapping snapping crazy, bat-shit insane. If Bush even attempted to call Kerry on it, Kerry could just look quizzical, like "what do you mean, George? A little defensive there, aren't ya?"
But no matter what it does to Bush, it'll project an overall image of the evening of the tall, tough Kerry against the much-shorter, blustering Bush.
And, in the back of all of this is the thought in everyone's mind, "One fought in Vietnam, one weaseled out of it." No matter what the CBS Memo thing is doing, it's driving that central fact further down into people's brains.