A week from today, June 6, will be the biggest primary day yet of this election season (the only other huge one is September 12). Eight states are having primary elections on the 6th, so if you live in Alabama, California, Iowa, Mississippi, New Jersey, New Mexico, or South Dakota, make sure to vote!
This thread is a rundown of the major primaries on that day, with analysis. Your thoughts are encouraged and welcomed.
Alabama Governor - Democrats
Gov. Bob Riley is sure to trounce wingnut judge Roy Moore in the Republican primary, but the Democrats' race is less sure. Some pollsters have Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley with a decent lead over former Gov. Don Siegelman, who is being investigated for corruption; others have it tied. For any kind of chance at making the race competitive, we need Baxley, as Siegelman is simply damaged goods at this point.
The rest below the fold...
California Governor - Democrats
The battle has gotten negative here as of late, with many California Democrats still undecided between Treasurer Phil Angelides, an old-fashioned liberal, and Controller Steve Westly, with a modern, moderate-friendly "California fusion" kind of ideology. Angelides is slightly favored, especially if turnout is low among moderates and other infrequent voters. But Westly has driven up his name recognition. Either can make it close, but Westly is polling very slightly better against Ahnoldt.
Iowa Governor - Democrats
Secy. of State Chet Culver is favored over former Rep. Mike Blouin (who was in Congress circa the disco era) and liberal State Rep. Ed Fallon, but is unlikely to get more than 40% of the vote. His performance may indicate how strong he will be for November against Republican Rep. Jim Nussle.
Iowa 1st District - Both Parties
In this open seat (being vacated by Nussle), both parties have competitive primary battles. Kerry got 53% in this district despite Nussle's popularity, so Democrats consider this a top opportunity. But who will the parties nominate? State Rep. Bill Dix, the presumed frontrunner on the GOP side, is getting a spirited challenge from anti-immigration candidate Brian Kennedy, and attorney Bruce Braley faces Rick Dickinson for the Dems. This race will be one big mystery for both June 6 and November 7.
Mississippi 2nd District - Democrats
This is only barely on the list. This rural, low-income black-majority district is the only one in the state that is strong for Democrats, but the primary is hardly a lock for incumbent Rep. Bennie Thompson, a solid liberal who is getting a more conservative challenge from young State Rep. Chuck Espy, a relative of former Rep. Mike Espy, who resigned in 1993 to become Clinton's Agriculture Secretary. Thompson is favored, but never underestimate the willingness of Democrats to kick out controversial incumbents (see Earl Hilliard, Cynthia McKinney, Craig Washington, Gary Condit, and Adam Clayton Powell).
New Jersey 13th District - Democrats
The contest for this vacant seat in the heavily Democratic, heavily Hispanic suburbs just across the Hudson from New York is getting quite nasty. State Assemblyman Albio Sires, the presumed frontrunner who was Speaker from 2001 to 2005, is being attacked by fellow Assemblyman Joseph Vas as part of the Hudson County machine. Sires should win, but watch Vas' percentage. A good performance by Vas (say, 40%) would indicate long-term dissatisfaction with the New Jersey establishment, even among loyal Democrats.
There are many other interesting primary elections for state offices (including California's Lieutenant Governor and Controller, a number of New Mexico races, etc.) but I figured most of you only care about those elections if you live in the given state. Comment all you like about those; this was just a brief, simple rundown of the marquee races.