Finally some
new numbers out of Iowa (link is a PDF). MoE 4%. (12/11 results in parenthesis)
Dean 29 (43)
Gephardt 22 (23)
Kerry 21 (15)
Edwards 17 (10)
Other 8 (?)
Undecided 3 (?)
Research 2000 has its latest Iowa poll out
as well. MoE 5%. (October results in parenthesis).
Dean 29 (26)
Gephardt 25 (26)
Kerry 18 (15)
Edwards 8 (8)
Clark 3 (3)
Undecided 13 (18)
The Research 2000 trends are not good, since it's been three months since the last R2000 poll, but whatever. It's there for what it's worth.
What is obvious is that this contest will turn on voter turnout. No doubt about that.
Oh, and R2000 has some Iowa head-to-heads.
Bush 50 (48)
Dean 42 (43)
Bush 48 (46)
Gephardt 42 (43)
Bush 50 (49)
Clark 39 (40)
Not bad, all around, given the recent spate of good news for Bush. But in any case, Iowa will be a battleground state.