Earlier today I posted a very detailed
analysis of our prospects in Colorado. It was
waaaaay too long, and only appropriate for detail-oriented types. So it dropped off of the end of the diaries like a lead balloon.
Below the fold is the short version, a simple list of bullet points.
I'm breaking Diary Rule 3 here, by repeating the Colorado topic. However, I passionately believe any attention given to Arkansas, Tennessee and Arizona, with only weeks to go until Nov 2, is better spent on Colorado. No matter how many times I get troll rated, I'm going to keep hammering on Colorado (and Nevada and West Virginia) until you're sick to death of it.
Message to Big Dudes out there: start paying attention to Colorado!
- In 1996, 9% of voters were hispanic. In 2000, 14%. Naive linear interpolation suggests around 19% will be hispanic in 2004. They vote at least 2/3rd Dem. Add to that, Dem senate candidate Ken Salazar is latino, currently polling slightly ahead of his GOP opponent Coors (the beer guy), and the reverse coattails could lead to an unprecedented latino turnout.
- 12% of young voters voted for Nader in 2000. I highly doubt anywhere near as many will this time. Add to that that ex-Nader voters split 6:1 Dem:GOP in Colorado.
- The last five Colorado polls were absolutely neck and neck (plus an outlier just released).
- Kerry was born in a military hospital in Colorado. That opens the door to great spin.
- Age 60+ voters in Colorado voted +17% for Bush in 2000. Sad though it is to say it, the reality is that this is the age group where most deaths occur. Meanwhile, the 18-29 age group, very pro Kerry/Nader, are all still around to vote again --- plus with their numbers boosted by those who were aged 14-17 in 2000, who by all accounts are nationally 2:1 pro-Kerry. (Note, however, that some 18-21 college students at Boulder etc may leave to return to their home states, so it's not quite as simple as that.)
- I read a piece somewhere (maybe linked from a dkos diary) about how many East and West coasters, tired with their drab corporate existence, move to be "free" in the mountains in Colorado. They want nothing to do with "the system", and live quietly in isolation in their cute mountain villages. They snub "the system" to the extent that they don't vote. This time, however, they realize their isolationism may not be in their best interests, and they're going to turn out like crazy to vote in 2004. (If someone can tell me the link to this article, I'll edit the diary.)
- Boulderite Blue the Wild Dog mentioned in a comment earlier today that another intangible factor in Kerry's favor is that a large number of military families in the Springs may not go so heavily for Bush this time around. The 4th Infantry Division, garrisoned partly at Fort Carson, has been deployed in Iraq since the start of the war. Also, Democratic turnout in Boulder and Denver during the caucuses was approximately 5 times normal levels. These are the same folks who'll be spending time on GOTV this fall.
- The Libertarian Badnarik factor (thanks to ben masel). The Libertarians are running a much more professional campaign than the last couple cycles, and have targetted Colorado for a major effort ahead. They could draw 3% or so, mostly at Bush's expense. The "anti-Nader" effect.
- Colorado has lost 76,000 jobs since Bush took office, and the unemployment rate has increased from 2.6 percent to 5.1 percent. The Republican-run government has slashed state budgets, including money for social services. The state's problems include the bursting of the high-tech bubble, a tourism drop and drought. (Source: AP/yahoo, Sep 14.)
- Gore 2000 states + Colorado + New Hampshire WINS. And with New Hampshire as blue as it is this time round, that basically means (assuming we hold WI/IA/MN/PA --- which I believe we're likely to, once this fake Gallup-driven "Bush bubble" implodes) Colorado essentially clinches the election. We don't need Ohio or Florida.
- The popular mentality is that Colorado is strongly GOP. Afterall, Bush won it in 2000 by 8% (albeit with Nader at 5%). So we may be able to catch the GOP asleep in this one, rather like they did with us in West Virginia and Tennessee in 2000.
For the detail/evidence behind these assessments, see
here.
PS One added complication is this horrible ballot measure proposing proportional allocation of CO's 9 electoral votes. I'll leave discussion of that for elsewhere.
PPS Thanks mattb25 for the referral in his excellent diary.