Update [2005-3-27 15:21:11 by SusanHu]: New details below the fold on No Korea rumors.Cross-posted at BoomanTribune.
Just in from Reuters:
North Korea Sunday confirmed a bird flu outbreak at two chicken farms in the capital Pyongyang and said the farms slaughtered and buried hundreds of thousands of chickens infected by the disease. ... [N]o one is reported to have been infected among breeders on the farms, the North's official KCNA news agency said. ...
It's clear this is could be a major threat. From Senate testimony by a USAID official:
As a result of the almost total lack of modern healthcare and poor water and sanitation systems in North Korea, the country is a breeding ground for communicable diseases. ...
More on the worldwide threat below : : :
In simple layman terms, here's why the threat of pandemic and North Korea's utter lack of public health measures may be on a collision course: The disease can LEAP easily from bird to human, particularly through migratory birds such as ducks as explained in detail in the Feb. 28 issue of
The New Yorker.
More on the threat, from OnPointRadio:
Watching for the Next Pandemic
The World Health Organization this week issued a serious alarm that the Asian bird flu outbreak, currently limited primarily to Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam, poses the "gravest possible danger" of turning into major global pandemic. The avian flu virus has affected poultry in eight Asian countries, and killed 45 people so far.
It may not sound like much, but this new, highly virulent and deadly virus is poised to make the leap from birds to a full-fledged human disease that could burn around the world. It has happened before. In 1918 the great flu pandemic killed some 20 to 50 million people worldwide. Global health officials say that if something isn't done right now, this new avian flu could become a similar killer.
Update [2005-3-27 15:21:11 by SusanHu]: Posted four hours ago at at Recombinomics.com:
Bird Flu Pandemic Potential in North Korea is Significant
Recombinomics Commentary
March 27, 2005
>> North Korea's state media have recently stressed campaigns against the outbreak of bird flu and set up quarantines at airports, sea ports and border areas, while categorically assuring that the country is completely free from the epidemic.
<<
... The situation is both politically and genetically unstable, creating a significant pandemic potential. There have been rumors of an outbreak for several weeks, and quarantines at airports may indicate the outbreak has been going on for a longer time period. Even now the announcement does not include the subtype, although the culling of hundreds of thousands of birds would indicate it is HPAI (Highly pathogenic Avian Influenza). Food shortages may also cause problems limiting the monitoring or consumption of dead or dying birds.
On the genetic side, North Korea is literally surrounded by potential problems with the H5 subtype. ... Read all
Andrew S. Natsios, Administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), in his testimony -- Life Inside North Korea -- before the Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Senate Foreign Relations Committee
Washington, DC, continues his description of North Korea's frightening lack of public health programs:
Currently, tuberculosis, malaria, and hepatitis B are considered to be endemic to the country, and other diseases if introduced into the country could have a devastating effect on the population. In particular, the possibility is great that SARS will enter the country through the porous border with China. The regime is making strenuous efforts to restrict the movement of people into the capitol city via air, including a 10-day quarantine for every traveler to Pyongyang. However, similar measures are not being undertaken at land crossings. If the disease takes hold, the impact would be tremendous. [more testimony below]
I can't find an online copy of the lengthy article I read in the Feb. 28 issue of
The New Yorker on avian flu. There is an
online-only interview with the author, Michael Specter. A
commentary at Recombinomics.com calls the lack of vigilance "
scandalous":
"Vigilance," Specter writes, "is one of the few weapons available." As one senior official at the Thai Ministry of Public Health says, "We are certainly better than we ever were at detecting viruses. But we are also much better at spreading them." ...
Thailand had 17 cases and 12 official bird flu deaths last season, and no reported cases this season, but both numbers lack credibility. ...
Moreover, the recent New England Journal report on cases that had fatal H5N1 infections but failed to initially show respiratory symptoms raises the specter of more untested and / or unreported cases, which may extend well beyond the borders of Vietnam or Thailand.
In view of the fact that vigilance is one of the few weapons available, the failure to monitor H5N1 avian influenza remains scandalous.
Obviously, the most modern public health procedures, and medical facilities, must be in use should an outbreak occur. But, in North Korea, Mr. Natsios warns:
The healthcare system in North Korea has been in a steep decline since the beginning of the 1990s. Without the economic support from the Soviet Union, the ability of the regime to purchase medicines and maintain the medical infrastructure immediately began to fail. Today, notwithstanding a relatively well-trained staff, the healthcare system in the country has all but collapsed. Only the elites at the highest level have access to modern medical care.
Today, the only access that the average North Korean has to modern medicine is either through the black market or, if extremely lucky, through international assistance programs. Generally, herbal or traditional medicines are used by the average North Korean, unless they have the financial capability to purchase the needed medicines from the black market.
Following visits to hospitals in North Korea, international aid workers have reported that even the larger regional hospitals have no regular electricity, little or no medicines, and no functioning modern medical equipment. Smaller hospitals are even less equipped. Only those medical facilities that receive direct assistance from international aid agencies can be expected to have any resources to address the medical needs of the local population.
A lot of Kossacks have done great work on the avian flu threat. Among the recent diaries:
Emphases mine.