Dem uber-analyst
Ruy Teixeira (who has graciously linked to the SSP) points out an
LA Times article discussing Michigan's swing state status. Surprise, surprise: The Democratic candidates aren't well-known yet & consequently have low poll numbers. Rove is presumably smart enough not to take solace in this - only 37% of Michiganders want to see Bush re-elected, according to the LAT. (The poll I linked to in the original post put that number even lower, at 33%.)
Based on the state's lousy economic conditions, Matt Yglesias feels pretty strongly that the odds of Michigan going GOP are about as good as seeing 80 degree weather on the Upper Peninsula in February. Bush may have visited Michigan 11 times since taking office, but the Washington Generals played the Globetrotters a few thousand times and they still never won, either.