I get the sense that almost everyone who posts here is going to be involved with at least one campaign next cycle. Obviously, the midterm elections are still a long way off, and 20 months can seem like an eternity in politics. A lot of us have useful experience, knowledge, and skills, but we need guidance one one significant intangible of campaigning:
timing.
There is enough collective talent here to have a massive impact in the 2006 elections, but we need to work together, share ideas and information, and help each other avoid mistakes.
I'm considering a run for state legislature, so below the fold I'll open up the floor to suggestions about how I can establish an effective timetable for my own race. But feel free to leave your own thoughts and insights of how candidates at various levels can gain strategic advantages by planning and timing their campaigns effectively.
We all know essentially what needs to happen between now and Nov. 6, 2006, but let's talk about when.
Unlike many "sacrificial lambs" in heavily GOP jurisdictions, I'm fortunate enough to "Leave No Seat Unchallenged" in a district where I believe I have a pretty decent shot at winning. My prospective opponent is about as vulnerable as a third-term incumbent could possibly be.
Background on the seat: Since the incumbent won by fewer than 300 votes in 2000, he has never faced Democratic opposition. Though term-limited in 2008, a popular Republican already has $90k in the bank (don't ask how this is possible or legal) for a run in 08 when the seat will presumably be open. The seat covers several counties, but 81% of votes cast will come from the county in which I reside. Even if I lost the precincts outside my home county by 55-45 margins, I only technically need 51.7% of the vote in my county to win.
I have the passion, energy, enthusiasm, and desire to win. I believe I have a winning message. Regrettably, I don't yet know where the requisite $150k will come from.
Beyond that, I'm not sure when to begin talking seriously to people about the race, when I need to commit officially (both in my mind and by filing papers), when I need to get a core group together, when I need to announce my candidacy, etc. Once I begin the campaign in earnest, assuming I run, I don't know what to expect in terms of how long it will take to pass various fundraising benchmarks, when to begin organizational and outreach functions, etc.
The legislature in my state meets in March and April. I wonder whether it would be better to announce well in advance of the 2006 session and put my opponent on notice, or let my opponent go to the capitol as a presumably unchallenged partisan yes-man, then announce after the session and let him try to defend his hard-right record.
Is there any strategic advantage to entering the race earlier or later? Is it crucial to keep my interest in the seat secret until I officially file papers, or is it better to drop hints about my interest to relevant people and organizations?
Though I have not sought elected office before, if I do this, it will not be an amateur operation. So I don't mean to come across as clueless, but I am very keen to hear your perspectives.