The more I think about it, the more this election looks like 1980 to me. That was the first presidential election that I was fully conscious of in an adult manner, though I was a few months shy of voting age. The parallels are striking.
First, we have an incumbent with low approval ratings going back almost a year.
Second, we have an electorate who feel overwhelmingly that we're heading in the wrong direction.
Third, we were stuck in an ugly situation (hostage crisis) in the middle east.
Fourth, we had sluggish economic growth that didn't feel like economic growth at all.
And in the campaign there were more similarities, listed below the fold:
The challenging party chose a tall, kinda macho guy as their nominee.
The incumbent ran a negative campaign designed to sow seeds of discomfort with this challenger and paint him as extreme, out-of-step and unfit for such a difficult job.
AND THEN THERE IS THIS
The Gallup poll, which at that time was by far the most reputable of the big political public opinion polls tracked the election this way.
June showed Reagan with a slim lead of 37% to 32%, with Anderson at 22%. July brought Carter back within the MOE, but Reagan leading in raw numbers 37% to 34%, with Anderson at 21%.
By late August it drew to a virtual tie of R=38% and C=39%.
After Labor Day, people get nervous about change and rally 'round the president, even if they think he's doing poorly, because this other guy just might not be trustworthy. Carter takes a 44% to 40% lead over Reagan and Anderson plummets to 9%.
At the beginning of October, Carter opens a commanding lead of 47% to Reagan's 39%.
In the debates, Reagan cleared his name and relaxed the public while the conservative movement redoubled it's efforts on the ground, making Fall 1980 a watershed in the "new right" movement, where they reached out and used grass-roots methods perfected by the left to broaden the base and bring in disaffected evangelicals who previously did not vote.
In the final Gallup poll in late October, Reagan led within the MOE 47% to 44% with Anderson falling to 8%.
The final outcome on election day was:
Reagan 50%
Carter 41%
Anderson 7%
Bush (a bad, stupid man with poor management skills and bad luck) is no Carter (a good, smart man with poor management skills and bad luck). Nader is sure no Anderson. Kerry is intellectually and morally superior to Reagan, but not quite as smooth and telegenic.
Still ...