As mentioned in the open thread, and as politicalwire quoted, there is a rumor of a new Iowa Poll showing Dean well ahead. To quote from the politicalwire:
"WHO-TV in Des Moines just announced at 10:20 p.m. CST the results of their latest Iowa Poll: Dean is ahead of Gephardt by ten points (32% to 22%). Kerry is now third, three points behind Gephardt with 19%."
If true, it shows considerable movement from the most recent set of Iowa polls. It also suggests that the ad Dean is running against Gephardt on the war might be working.
Now the who-tv website does not have these results, but it DOES have general election numbers. Here is the link:
http://www.whotv.com/Global/story.asp?S=1537419&nav=5ZinJIEQ
This is a surveyusa poll, but the results are not on the survey website like they usually are. Since the poll cited is a general election poll, it is possible that the caucus numbers are from a small sample - perhaps 300 votes.
In any case, these numbers are VERY good news for Democrats, as they show both Gephardt and Dean leading in a state that was essentially a dead heat in 2000. One of the things that appears to be developing is that Bush is weakening in the Midwest more than in other places. Bush is holding up well in the south, but polls I have seen from Wisc., Mich, and Ill and here suggest substantial weakening for him this last several months.