A rambling essay for the primera posada de navidad.
For generations now, the Monroe Document has been the basis for more bloodshed and tyranny than I care to mention here, but this weekend might be the domino for a lot of countries heading to the left. For years, hard right regimes, usually backed by the USA, have held sway, but as the American Empire fades, democracies that actually work for the people have began to spring up. Bolivia is having their historical moment this weekend.
Right now, no one has the majority. Evo Morales, who has been blogged here recently to my delight, has the lead at 34%, and former President, and Bush-lover, Jorge Quiroga has 29%. Business legend and cement magnate Samuel Doria Medina (whose party also controls the congress) has a respectable 9%. The trick in Bolivia is though, if no one gets 51%, then the congress will decided who is President. Expect antics.
While the congress is often pressured to pick the candidate who got the most vote, they are not required to and have picked the runner up twice in the last 20 years since they returned to a democracy. Ironically, this could make Medina the real king maker. So what does this mean?
Well, since it is quite clear that Morales will not get to 50 percent plus one vote, you are looking at a street coup. The last two times the Congress of Bolivia tried to get a Bush puppet in the presidency, even though he was not the candidate with the most votes, the masses have filled the streets in protest until the proper candidate 'won'. This will obviously happen again if Morales is the top vote getter, but not chosen as President. But, there are more issues.
If Morales wins, he plans on kicking the 'anti-narcotics US police' out of Bolivia.
"We'll have zero cocaine but not zero coca," he told The Scotsman. "The US isn't really interested in cocaine eradication - it uses the war against drugs like the war against terror in Iraq, as an excuse to dominate other countries. The fact that it doesn't really target the demand for drugs demonstrates this."
He's right, you know. America has repeatedly used the War on Drugs to set up CIA 'spook' shops all across South America. Ask Columbia and Venezuela. Hardly ever actually doing anything to combat drugs, these 'police' usually are found to be entangled in coups, promoting hard-right candidates and are basically there to ensure American oil company interests. Google how many troops we currently have in Columbia, it might surprise you.
See, whether you want to admit it our not, America has treated South America like an imperialistic client state for over 100 years, and they are not going to take it anymore. Causachun coca, wanuchun Yanguis. That's is supposedly Evo's campaign slogan meaning "Long Live Coca, death to the Yankees." But take that with a grain of salt because the only place I have seen that is in Andres Oppenheimer's Miami Herald's column, and he is a known propogandist who calls Morales a "Pro-Cuban Pro-Castro Venezuelan-backed radical leftist." Though he gets points in creativity in stringing together all of Bush's enemy list in the region in on description, he always scores poorly in the truth department.
The major knock against Morales is that he wants to legalize coca growing. This should shock no one, because he is the coca grower's union leader. Right now, the government allows 12,000 hectares of coca to be grown. While most think this will go straight to making some pure Bolivian blow, major international corporations are actually the major buyers. **cough* Coca-cola *cough** And let's not forget in the Yungas region of Bolivia (one of the last edens on earth and extremely hard to get to), coca has many uses and any tourist going there looking for cocaine is going to be highly disappointed. The best you will do is a some tea made out coca leaves or a wad of Bolivian marching powder you gotta suck on for hours to even get a buzz. Not that I know or anything.
But even if Morales survives Washington's coming maneuvering in the Bolivian congress to get Quiroga elected as their puppet again, Evo will have a major issue on his hands that probably has never seen the light of day in American press. Like the Midwest vs. Coasts match up in the states, Bolivia is definitely two countries in one. The wealthy and extremely beautiful eastern province of Santa Cruz is calling for independence like it was Texas. Santa Cruz accounts for 80 percent of the agriculture and is roughly responsible for 50 percent of the GNP of the country. And considering that the governors of the country are extremely powerful, this could lead to a serious problem.
But if he can solve that, kick the USA out of their politics and military, use the country's oil to improve the life of their people, and make it stick, why, you will have a revolutionary idea out of Bolivia. And for anyone who studies history, when Bolivia gets revolutionary, a lot of South America follows.
So be sure to check the scoreboard on Monday to see who won, because it might be the first shots fired in a lot of national elections next year here in Latin America (including Mexico with it's own leftist candidate doing very well). I will find no end in amusement when Latin America is seen as more progressive than the United States. No end of amusement at all.