This article has caused some teeth gnashing in the diaries. The title says it all: "Democrats Scale Back Ambitions for House".
Except that the article has no proof that Democrats have "scaled back" their expectations. There was never any talk of taking back the House amongst party people. Even me, optimistic as I am, don't think it'll happen until 2006. Why? Because of Texas. Delay's powergrab was successful, and has made our task much more difficult.
So aside from the b.s. headline, we face certain realities. As the article says, the Republicans have more money. NRCC has raised $77 million, the DCCC has $30 million. Then again, the cash on hand numbers are much narrower -- $9.7 million versus $6.5 million. What did the NRCC spend $69.6 million on? It wasn't on shoring up their generic congressional ballot position, that's for sure.
And in any case, they GOoPers always outspend us. It's a fact of life. They outspent Chandler by 25 percent, and we still won that race. They outspent Al Gore, and we still won that race. Money, while important, can only go so far. As long as our candidates have the money to get their message out we can win.
Which races can we take? SD-AL (open seat), AZ1 (Rick Renzi), GA11 (Phil Gingrey), GA12 (Max Burns), WA8 (Jennifer Dunn's seat, now open), WA5 (open seat), IN2 (Chris Chocola), IN8 (John Hostettler), CO3 (open seat), LA3 (open seat), NM1 (Heather Wilson), NM2 (Steve Pearce), PA15 (open seat), NE1 (open seat). CO7 (Bob Beauprez), CO3 (Scott McInnis), KY3 (Ann Northup), CT2 (Rob Simmons) and more.
We've got some at-risk seats, as well. KY4 (open seat), PA13 (open seat), KS3 (Dennis Moore), UT2 (Jim Matheson), LA7 (open seat), LA5 (Rodney Alexander), IN9 (Baron Hill), OR5 (Darlene Hooley), and some others. And let's not talk about Texas, though the state party is fired up and claims it won't lose as many seats as Delay expected. We'll see.
Fact is, We have a good 40-50 competitive districts. The fate of the House rests on a 12-seat shift (15-16 seat shift if you account for Texas). The "national mood" can and will have an effect on the House. We can do some real damage to the GOP's House majority, and nothing in the NY Times article really indicated otherwise.
A $3 million cash advantage for the NRCC does not suggest a GOP sweep.
Much more coming up. OurCongress.org is only a handful of weeks away from launch.