The
Fermi Paradox is a conundrum proposed by pioneer physicist Enrico Fermi that questions the likelihood of Intelligent Extraterrestrial life. The paradox begins with the
Drake Equation or some derivative which guesstimates the possible number of intelligent civilizations in the universe, and then extrapolates expansion rates into the universe from a point location within the cosmos of that species or culture.
The paradox is that there should have been enough ET's over the last 10 plus billion years, that even if they moved at velocities achievable by human technology today, they could have swarmed over the galaxy, or even the cluster to which our galaxy belongs to, many times over.
Clearly, we don't know enough about the universe to draw any firm conclusions from the paradox. Still, it's an interesting thought experiment: Our galaxy is about 100,000 light years from rim to rim and contains perhaps 400 billion stars, each of which could easily have, on average, a half-dozen planets. The galaxy is perhaps 10 billion years old. If there were a single fledgling interstellar civilization in all that space and time, and it expanded away from its planet or point of origin on average at the measly rate of one light year every ten-thousand years, slower than our own Voyager Spacecraft are traveling, and grew in all directions, it would take 'only' one-billion years to get from one end of the galaxy to another and completely fill it up along the way. A little faster, at a mere one percent of the speed of light, it would take only ten-million years to spread from one end of the galaxy to another, and less than a billion to engulf entire clusters of galaxies.
Humans could begin constructing spacecraft that move at these speeds right now, if we put our minds to it. So if we could start spreading all over the galaxy using our current technology, why hasn't someone or something already spread all over us? Once cultures started spreading like this it seems likely a ruthless sort of selection would kick in and favor the culture, or the faction within a culture, which does so the most aggressively, quickly, and successfully. It's hard to see what would stop it. So where are they? Is there anybody out there?
Remember, no matter how many technological alien civilizations self-destruct or are wiped out by natural disaster, all it takes is for
one of them to develop and survive in all that space and time. It would only have to happen once in all the history of the local group of galaxies and they should be here, or we should at least detect signs, fresh or ancient, relatively nearby if not in our solar neighborhood. Whatever solution is proposed, it has to be
one-hundred percent effective.
One version of the Drake Equation above: N is the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which we might expect to be able to communicate; R* is the rate of star formation in our galaxy; fp is the fraction of those stars which have planets; Ne is the average number of planets which can potentially support life per star that has planets; fl is the fraction of the above which actually go on to develop life; fi is the fraction of the above which actually go on to develop intelligent life; fc is the fraction of the above which are willing and able to communicate; L is the expected lifetime of such a civilization (Current estimates of the number of advanced ET cultures)
So the question, naturally, is where are they? If they're long gone, where are the ruins? The abandoned and wrecked Dyson Spheres or the remnants of Ringworlds? Even if they're not here on Earth right now in any obvious way, why don't we see the interstellar traffic lights or hear the radio chatter? Where are the giant interstellar construction projects, some of which would plausibly be grand enough for us to detect from our earthbound and space based observation platforms? Does this mean we, as intelligent beings, are unique or rare beyond imagination? Is it evidence for a Theistic Creator Entity or entities which created humans specifically? Why or why not?
Left: A partially open Dyson Sphere around a blue-white super-giant star. Right: A black-hole is embedded in a grid of super-conducting struts powering alien projects and life-forms unknown. Both structures could be used for power generation and habitation. The effects of either might be observable with current earth-based devices. None so far have been found. Images created by graphic artist and DKos member Karen Wehrstein for this article
The Rarity Solution: Intelligent life which reaches the radio transmission or space-faring stage is rare to the point that it's statistically unlikely to find more than one such species at any given time for a hundred million light years or more around.
The Prime Directive Solution: There's a peaceful intergalactic wide civilization composed of millions of species working in utopian harmony for the greater good of all and they're so damn concerned that we develop naturally without devastating interference that it's against the rules to intervene in anyw ... buahahaha! OK, DR Sagan, Mr. Rodenberry? Please put the bong down now. Moving on then ...
The Zoo Exhibit/Theistic Solution: We're on display for the amusement or research utility of the ET's and, like in any zoo, there's a rule about not feeding the animals. We're the galactic equivalent of a reality TV show. Personally I include most religious explanations under this category; where the entire universe and/or mankind, exist solely as a way to keep score in a cosmic pissing contest between rival deities or super aliens. I bid 100 quatloos! (For whatever reason that latter scenario with the sociopathic deities comforts some people, although the source of that comfort eludes me. Each to his own).
The Anti-Prime Directive: There is a homogeneous culture throughout the galaxy, but they're paranoid SOBs who zap any potential competitors as soon as they know about them. Now that's something I can accept based on human behavior! And because they're so paranoid they keep a very low profile in the meantime. In this scenario Beserker Machines or Hiveships are already on their way to earth, with charged photon torpedo banks at the ready, thanks to early transmissions of I Love Lucy. (Fortunately, they use windows compatible networks vulnerable to Doom and Gloom viri which we will download into their mainframe and ... )
The Periodic Annihilation Solution: Gamma Ray Bursters, galactic collisions, or other things we haven't thought of, periodically wipe large regions of the cosmos clean of complex living structures. The catastrophes could be localized to a few thousands light years and randomly periodic, as in Stephen Baxter's Manifold Space, or cosmic events, such as changes in the vacuum energy level of the entire universe.
The Transcendence Solution: Intelligent ET's discover there's much more to the cosmos than we have the faintest inkling of and they reconfigure themselves to live in that realm, create a technology to get them to it, or literally create their own universe or virtual reality. IOW, they leave this universe for something better ... Or they're here right now, we just can't see them because they've evolved or engineered themselves to subsist in a media where they live at speeds and on scales we cannot detect. Maybe they're hanging out right here in this room with me at the quantum level or in an associated higher non-Euclidean metric to our humdrum Riemannian cosmos, i.e., Hyperspace. Or maybe they're composed of dark matter and the size of galaxies living in intergalactic voids where it's 'safe'. They're aware of our planet and our culture but they just don't give a shit, anymore than you care about bacteria growing on the skin of an apple.
The X-files Solution: They are here in disguise and they're manipulating us to their own dastardly evil ends. Dick Cheney is their leader. Someone should really be checking the White House basement for strange looking pods. (Or conversely maybe the dominant alien race happens to look just like coat hangers and prefers living quietly in closets)
From a four part collection this work is called Grand Universe and was produced by space artist Gary Tonge. Here, this stunning image serves as a stand in for what a massive, intergalactic construction project might look like from afar. Seen from the vicinity solar system containing an earth-like planet in the foreground, an alien civilization spanning at least several galaxies has reconfigured a giant galaxy into a ring of billions of star systems circling a titanic central power device of unknown properties. The giant artificial galaxy has been surrounded with a sort of transparent Dyson Sphere, while smaller galaxies acting as 'suburbs' orbit the periphery. If such a project existed anywhere within a billion light years or more, there is a good chance the artifact[s] would be detectable with earth bound and orbital observation platforms. Copyright © 1999-2002 Gary Tonge - All rights reserved. Used with permission. Check out Gary's high resolution gallery of spaceart!
Any number of clues to the existence of potentially habitable worlds or existing alien artifacts stand to be greatly increased over the next two decades with the launch of new space based observatories. But current projects such as the James Webb Space Telescope and even our existing network of weather observation satellites are in grave danger of falling prey to White House budget cuts. The Iraq boondoggle, tax cuts for billionaires and international corporations, GOP pork and corruption, along with the ever expanding interest on our Federal deficit owed to our Chinese loansharks, are sucking the life out of research & funding like a growing, financial cancer.
The discovery of intelligent life in the universe would no doubt have profound consequences for how we view ourselves and the rest of the cosmos. Great religions, governments, ideologies, and schools of philosophy would likely scramble all over each other as they tried to figure out if they can take credit for it, denounce it as a hoax or Satanic, worship it, or ignore it.
My own guess is that intelligent life is indeed rare. And I wouldn't be completely shocked if at some point we do detect signs of intelligent life among what we may think of as natural phenomena. And it should be noted that based on our own experiences where advanced cultures meet more primitive ones, the current lack of encounters between aliens and ourselves is probably a good thing. But like so many other items in an indifferent cosmos, it's something we sure need to see coming, if it's on the way.