Another weak jobs report will boost Senator Kerry's fortunes as February nonfarm payrolls come in at plus 21,000 vs expecations of 125,000 and a whisper number ofr 150,000 or greater. January payrolls were revised lower to 97,000 form initially reported 112,000. Interest rates will fall on this news which is good news in terms of extending the moderate economic recovery, helps corporate profits, and supports stock prices. However, the jobs headline is the political issue. Bush and Elaine Chao have some explaining to do.
Also remember that budget projections make assumptions about employment and the associated payroll and income taxes. Employment is also used to project expenditures for things like unemployment compensation and even expenditures like Medicare. In other words, the defict projections just went up again.