Open seats are interesting, but they're often so safe (because of redistricting) that they have little or no chance of changing parties. I mean, there are districts out there (often black- or Latino-majority) that are literally...LITERALLY...90% Democratic. And there are heavily white suburban or rural districts out there, in places like Nebraska, Idaho, and Kansas, that are literally 70-90% Republican. It's so annoying. And because of it, there are only THREE open seats so far that stand a strong chance of changing parties...THREE. See my previous post.
The notable incumbent races are more fun, because there's more mudslinging, more competition, more $ spent, more controversy, more popcorn to eat. Read below the jump...
I'm basing my analysis on Larry Sabato here (no, don't flame me!), because I can't find anyone else with a better rundown of these races.
Texas 22 (Suburbs around Houston)
Tom DeLay - R
Yep. Is any race going to be more entertaining than this one? Try to name one if you can. A scandal-plagued, overwhelmingly unpopular 11-term incumbent in a very red district who got only 55% last year against an underfunded DFA opponent is facing a former Congressman he redistricted out of a job. I can hardly stand the excitement!!!! Former Rep. Nick Lampson, a moderate Democrat, is running and has to be considered the scariest opponent DeLay could face. Lampson came closer than many expected to winning reelection last year despite that horrible DeLaymander, and now he's coming back to fight the Hammer in a district where 1 in 5 district residents had Lampson as their Congressman before the new map. Lampson is not as progressive as Richard Morrison, but unlike Morrison he stands a very good chance of winning. He knows this district and he's ready for a fight. Lean ever-so-slightly GOP, just because of the district's heavy Republican bent, but it's almost a Toss-Up given DeLay's unpopularity and Lampson's potential strength.
Indiana 9 (Southeast Indiana)
Mike Sodrel - R
I didn't expect this to be competitive, but Baron Hill, the Blue Dog Democrat barely ousted by Sodrel last year, is back, and he wants a good fight. The district, though Bush-friendly, is traditionally one of conservative Democrats, like Tim Roemer's old district was in northern Indiana. Move over, John Hostettler, your neighbor's in for some tough campaigning. Many believe that Hill lost last year only because of the big GOP swing in Indiana and because he took the race for granted. Lean GOP, barely.
Illinois 8 (Northwest suburbs of Chicago)
Melissa Bean - D
Like Sodrel, Bean narrowly ousted an incumbent in a major upset last year. But unlike Sodrel, she faces a politically unfriendly district, one of the most Republican and wealthiest in my new home state. Lean Dem, based on that magic weapon, incumbency.
Connecticut 2 (Eastern Connecticut)
Rob Simmons - R
Simmons won a tight reelection in 2004, and this new round of base closures will badly hurt the 2nd's economy. 2002 challenger Jim Courtney is running. Lean GOP, slightly.
Connecticut 4 (Southwest Connecticut)
Chris Shays - R
Like Simmons, Shays won a tight reelection (52-48...OUCH!). He also faces a Democratic district in what may well be a Democratic year. Lean GOP, slightly.
Georgia 8 (Middle Georgia)
Jim Marshall - D
Oy. You all know how much I love mid-decade GOP gerrymanders, don't you? Yep, Marshall's the main target of this new, "nice and pretty" map. His new district is dramatically different from the old 3rd, now stretching from the southern suburbs of Atlanta