Square Zogby's Iowa "final track" with the Iowa results (with the DM Register's last Iowa Poll in for good measure):
Kerry 38
Kerry Zogby 25 (-13)
Kerry Iowa Poll 26 (-12)
Edwards 32
Edwards Zogby 21 (-11)
Edwards Iowa Poll 23 (-9)
Dean 18
Dean Zogby 22 (+4)
Dean Iowa Poll (+2)
Gephardt 11
Gephardt Zogby 18 (+7)
Gephardt Iowa Poll 18 (+7)
While the Iowa Poll was closer, both polls got only one of the four major contenders within their margin of error.
What is interesting is that Dean's vote proved the most predictable. Why might that be? The tracks cover three days, which is great for spotting trends, but lousy for telling you what's happening today. This methoodology gets more vulnerable the closer you get to election time, because it gives more weight to one- and two-day-old preferences, and underweights last-minute movement. In other words, a track can misread momentum in the late stages. This clearly happened in Iowa.
The one difference is when a candidate is going neither up nor down, but is merely stuck. That guy turned out to be Dean, which would seem to contradict the stories about last-minute voters leaving him. Instead, they left Gephardt and the others.
The NH tracks have shown pronounced movement for Kerry & Edwards (up) and Dean and Clark (down). Leiberman has stayed relatively flat. If those trends continue, Kerry wins in a relative walk, with Edwards and Dean competitive for second and Clark in fourth. There is no Joementum, except as it hurdles toward Bridgeport.
Thoughts?