Well, the talk of Dean "peaking" has resumed, or should I say continued, with more round of speculation. I mean no disrespect to Rick Robinson (whom I always like reading) and his diary below, but the whole idea of peaking is much overrated. It's part of the dynamic, but it's way overhyped by the media. Right now, it's much more about political capital and where to spend it. Below, I discuss the concept and Dean's mighty war-chest of the stuff.
Political capital is the stuff politics is really all about. Money's a part of it, but it's really the catch-all term for political strength. And most of it is tough to build. The NH/IA/Feb-primaries dynamic is a perfect real-world example of the practicalities of political capital.
Dean spent all of last year building strength in a whole numbers of ways. He's got a lot of money and, even more important, a massive list of un-tapped out donors from which to draw more. He's got an organization in many states which can carry his message out even when he is not there. And, maybe most importantly, he has a base of voters in many states that is already committed to him. This is all political capital on which he can build.
Most importantly right now, he spent a lot of time and effort building a huge lead in NH. This lead includes a lot of political capital in his bank. For example, firm support from voters is political capital, soft support far less so. The recent ARG poll shows 89% of Dean supporters are committed to the guy. This gives Dean a lot of voters and support he can simply bank on. Dean's organization in NH is also huge. And, his grass-roots support in NH and neighboring VT is large and well-organized. He spent a lot of time and money building up this situation, and now he's using it. He is, in effect, spending that NH political capital he built up by spending so much time in Iowa. Kerry, by contrast, has much less political capital in NH, so his time in Iowa is killing him. He's spending capital he doesn't have. Clark had very little, so he's spending every day trying to grab more. And, the resources are not infinite, so the going is getting tougher for all around to try to get more.
This story is playing out in the Feb. primaries and caucuses as well. Dean's holds more "capital" in those states than all the others combined, probably. But, there is far less of it spoken for there, so the dynamic is more fluid. But, this capital is sitting there quietly growing, waiting for Dean to put it to use.
And, capital can be invested to get more. Properly invested capital (letters from supporters to undecided voters) doesn't diminish the capital available and gains a lot more. A smart campaign, and a smart politician, can really leverage the right kind of capital into ever greater strength. And no one ever said Dean wasn't a smart politician. In fact, years of watching him has convinced me that his understanding of capital and resource allocation is almost certainly his greatest strength.
Depending on press momentum as your main source of political capital is like depending on currency speculators to prop up your currency. It could work, but they're a fickle lot. And, in the end, it's not nearly as strong as the less sexy forms of political capital like organization, money, etc.
So, in conclusion, it's still early enough in the game that Dean probably does not have an unassailable lead in the political capital fight, but his lead is strong enough that thoughts that he has "peaked" should be tempered severely.
Besides, winning does a lot for momentum . . .