Moderate and Liberal Democrats, pundits and the media, both inside and outside of NY-19, are waiting to see what happens next in terms of REAL Party and DCCC support in this district. (David Broder, David Espo/AP, the NY Times and others have all written post-Primary election comment referring to this in some way, shape or form in the past week.)
The question on everyone's mind is: "Is the recently announced Rahm Emanuel-Howard Dean deal real, or just a lame p.r. effort?"
In NY-19, the DCCC's candidate lost in a big way to a much better organized and much more professionally managed John Hall campaign. In fact, no other congressional district in NY State came close (not NY-20 nor NY-24, or any other district) to the Dem turnout in last week's NY-19 primary, which was more than 100% higher than 2004, and actually more than the 2002 and 2004 turnouts, combined. Will John Hall get the real backing he's now earned, or will he become the poster boy for Democratic Party dysfunctionality in 2006?
To their credit, the DCCC graciously put out two documents last week: 1.) a "New York Memo;" and, 2.) a press release entitled: "Emerging From the Fray: 4 New Candidates," both citing the no-less-than-phenomenal results of Hall's effort in the Primary. NY State Democratic Party Chair Farrell was onsite the morning after the election at Hall's "Unity Press Conference in the District, too. All great signs for the weeks ahead.
But, where will the DCCC and the Party in general, go from here? Clearly, NY-19 is becoming ground zero for Party unity in 2006.
Hall's already been elected, multiple times earlier in his career, on much more Republican turf than where he's running today. And, the truth is, there's little difference between his stance on the issues and the positions of those he vanquished last Tuesday. I will say that Hall's campaign is, by far, the best organized and best managed Democratic effort I've witnessed since moving into this district 14 years ago. Almost all observers agree on this. Furthermore, Hall definitley has the fundraising and organizational management chops to pull it off. There's hardly ANYONE in this district--Republican or Democrat--that doesn't agree with the sentiment that Sue Kelly is in for the challenge of her career with just seven weeks to go before Election Day.
But, now Kelly, and even some of the more right-wing, local media outlets are (post-Primary) taking up the "too-liberal-for-this-District" mantra perpetuated by the DCCC-backed candidate in the Primary.
By coming out too early, the DCCC has opened Pandora's Box here in NY-19. And, only the DCCC, Rahm Emanuel and Howard Dean can close it. Otherwise, they're setting up a dangerous precedent for every non-DCCC-endorsed Democrat that wins a primary from this point forward.
Above and beyond the previous statements listed in this diary entry, there are some very practical reasons for the DCCC to support the Hall campaign:
--John Hall is a VERY shrewd political operative (he kicked butt last week, in the most positive sense of the term) and an excellent campaigner, historically (while Sue Kelly is already going out of her way, spending lots of time trying to label him as too liberal for the district) the FACTS are he's already won MULTIPLE local elections in areas considered to be even more (much more) Republican than NY-19 (Yes, this is worthy or reiteration).
--Hall will raise significant money in coming weeks; the campaign's already demonstrated that they're quite adept at this; last week's results just further underscore this reality;
--However, there are some unusual characteristics about NY-19, media-wise, that make it a bit more winnable for someone with established organizational chops, versus a candidate who's focused primarily upon (and successful at) just raising money--and Hall is all about doing BOTH well, not just raising bucks;
--With or without the DCCC's (and the Party's) REAL support, this is going to be a close race. Almost EVERYONE agrees on this. Despite labels of "Leaning," "Likely," or otherwise, there IS a REAL general consensus on this race being not just winnable, but winnable by Hall;
--Joe Trippi is intently focused on this campaign; (Do I need to say anything else about the organizational capabilities of Hall's effort, given this fact? Okay, I will, anyway.) Reiterating another fact, the Hall campaign IS by far and away the best Democratic effort I've ever seen here; I've lived in the district since 1992;
--Both MODERATE and LIBERAL Labor support is nothing short of massive; the Hall organization is (already) powerful and growing; this race is already becoming a testament to the reality that organized labor's sheer numbers STILL can heavily influence the outcome of a political race in New York State;
--Kelly's never really been tested; I've read online where some Repub's were claiming Kelly was "tested" once before, and it's just not accurate (the guy had money, but he ran a dreadful campaign); she's very weak, issue-wise; her record belies her somewhat successful attempt to spin herself as a moderate; very simply, she is NOT; Hall's going to pull away the curtain on this reality over coming weeks;
--Heavy NYC media (otherwise too wasteful in terms of impressions, even for Sue Kelly to spend too much there) from both the Spitzer and Clinton campaigns will help underscore Hall's efforts;
--For one of the first times since she's been in office, Kelly's going to be forced to debate her opponent; pundits tell me this is NOT her strong suit (I'm being polite; like the President whom she rubber stamps, Kelly is not the brightest bulb in the box).
So, if Mr. Dean and Mr. Emanuel are not going to expend significant financial resources here (yes, it's hard to use a more appropriate term than "cleaning up their own mess"), at least I hope they CONTINUE to put more muscle behind this fight via the DCCC's p.r. machine, just like they did this past week; also, I really hope they make an effort to schedule the big guns here in coming days, too; help Hall shut Sue Kelly down in the press and behind the scenes at least as far as this subject, in particular, is concerned; the Hall campaign will do the rest.
If the Party is not truly united here--when and where it really counts--then where?
But, perhaps THE biggest irony of them all in this story is that NY-19 is literally in Hillary's and Bill's backyard. (A nine-iron shot from the Clinton's living room would end up with the ball inside the district.)
With this issue left flapping in the wind now in NY-19, how/what does this bode for Dem's everywhere in 2008?