According to
an Angus Reid Global Scan, a Scripps-Howard / Ohio University poll published yesterday (8/9/06), Bush would lose either the 2000 or 2004 election if it were held today:
2000
[Candidate Poll% (Actual)]
Gore 46% (48.4)
Bush 38% (47.9)
Nader or Buchanan 9% (3.1)
2004
Kerry 46% (48.3)
Bush 40% (50.7)
Nader 7% (0.4)
Of course, Gore won 2000 (Electoral College too, if we're honest about Florida). And Kerry won 2004 by exit polls, considering Ohio, too. But this poll shows
conclusive differences,
decisive victories by Gore and Kerry. None of this "coin landing on its edge" results that we see in actual binding election results. It's absolutely clear that our elections need to be decided by larger than the margin of error, or go into runoff. There is absolutely no defensible reason for leaving our procedure unamended, after generations of elections have generated not only often catastrophic results contrary to the candidates' representations. It also generates
buyer's remorse too often to ignore.
It's also worth noting the differences in today's voters' decisions from the voters' decisions in past elections:
1964
[Candidate Poll% (Actual)]
Johnson 50% (68.1)
Goldwater 23% (38.5)
1968
Nixon 34% (43.4)
Humphrey 31% (42.7)
Wallace 15% (13.5)
1972
McGovern 42% (37.5)
Nixon 39% (60.7)
1976
Carter 52% (50.1)
Ford 35% (48.0)
1980
Reagan 56% (50.7)
Carter 30% (41.0)
Anderson 6% (6.6)
1984
Reagan 64% (58.8)
Mondale 24% (40.6)
1988
Bush 53% (53.4)
Dukakis 33% (43.6)
1992
Clinton 52% (43.0)
Bush 30% (37.4)
Perot 12% (18.9)
1996
Clinton 56% (49.2)
Dole 25% (40.7)
Perot 12% (8.4)
Goldwater's brand has decayed by 60% since 1964, despite the constant invocation of his name as "Conservative Harbinger", and LBJ's demonstration of failure in Vietnam (which has decayed his own votes by only 74%). Nixon would still beat Humphrey, but lose to McGovern, though still gaining the votes of over 1/3 of masochistic American adults today. Dukakis does worse against the (unchanged) Bush Sr, but Reagan is the only Republican whose support increases in retrospect.
Republicans won 60% of those elections; they'd win only 50% today (if the results could be combined). But controlling most of the last few generations of power, including total control the past 6 years, has shown Americans how bad Republicans are for us. With any luck, Americans will continue to realize how much we actually hate Republicans, even after they're long gone.