CNN reporting that offensive operations will resume because negotiations have broken down in Najaf. Juan Cole had a great post up about the situation, prior to this latest developement. As he points out;
Obviously, Allawi and the Americans have Muqtada right where he wants them.
In addition, he reports;
Protestors at a large rally in Diwaniya occupied and attacked the office of Iyad Allawi's party, the Iraqi National Accord. There were also big crowds in Baghdad, Kufa, and Samawa. Even strongly Sunni Falluja had a demonstration in favor of him. At Hilla, the Polish troops are surrounded at the police station and may need the Americans to come rescue them. The big crowds chanted "Long live Sadr, Fallujia stands by Najif against America".
http://www.juancole.com/
I am beginning to wonder if Sadr will manage to bring Allawi down. The renewed attempts to negotiate was a direct result of the backlash that was occuring across Iraq. CNN threw some interesting tidbits out about the situation last night, including crowd shots. Demostrators were calling for American withdrawl, and the local police had pictures of Sadr taped to thier windshields. There were pictures of Sadr on the police stations too, and reports that local forces were vowing to join Sadr rather than fight him. The crowds in Baghdad were chanting thier willingness to take up arms and become martyrs for Muqtada.
Allawi cannot just back away now, as the resumption of offensive operations demonstrates. Sadr's defiance is only making him more popular. I would guess that the announcements that Sadr had been wounded in the fighting was staged to whip up fevor. Allawi truly has a wolf by the ears, he cannot let go, but is likely to get chewed up regardless. Sadr has vowed to fight on till he wins or dies, in which case he still wins. We maybe watching a repeat of what happened in Iran, only worse as Allawi has no one to back him up other than American troops. If Allawi backs down his attempts to inforce his authority are over, if he doesn't an Iran type of event looks increasingly likely.
Once again the Bush administration has proved to be incredibly stupid in starting this confrontation. Steady leadership, indeed. I guess there is no way they will let go of the oil fields until thier cold dead fingers are pried off of the pumps. If they had half a brain they would have tried to keep things on a low boil until after the election, but no, they had to turn up the heat now.
Bush is his own worst enemy.
*Update [2004-8-14 23:10:55 by PLS]:* Looks like I was onto something. Helena Cobban at just world news says;
"Well friends, I don't understand why the the people currently ruling the US crave crisis in Iraq, either. But that certainly seems to be the case.
Today, there has already been more news indicating the collapse of Allawi's political-stratigic position."
As evidence she cites ia a massive pray in at the gates of the green zone, by supporters of Muqtada from Sadr city. Plus, previously supportive clerics denouncing Allawi, and the 10,000 or so Sadr supporters who have converged on the shrine in Najaf from as far away as Baghdad to serve as human shields. See post down thread and link for more info on this developement.