Exxon Mobil... has quietly joined the ranks of those who are predicting an impending plateau in non-OPEC oil production. Their report, The Outlook for Energy: A 2030 View, forecasts a peak in just five years...
I sure hope they're wrong, but it's not likely that they would have much incentive to fudge their numbers (and make the peak seem nearer). It's a lot more likely that they're going to fudge it the other way, in which case it will be even more of a "crude awakening".
This report is significant because the oil majors are just now starting to admit what they've known for years, namely that their non-renewable energy is not going to be able to fulfill the needs that it has for the last 100 years.
But what about all the trillions of barrels of oil from "oil shale" and whatnot? I guess Exxon doesn't believe in it...
more below.
more below.
...Also noteworthy is the manner in which the Outlook addresses so-called frontier resources, such as extra-heavy oil, "oil sands," and "oil shale." The report cites the existence of more than 4 trillion barrels of extra heavy oil and "oil sands"--producing potentially 800 billion barrels of oil, assuming a 20-25 percent extraction efficiency. The Outlook also cites an estimate of 3 trillion barrels of "oil shale." These numbers have figured prominently in advertisements that ExxonMobil and other petroleum companies have placed in newspapers and magazines, clearly in an attempt to reassure consumers (and perhaps stockholders) that there is no need to worry about resource constraints for many decades.
However, as with all advertisements, it's best to read the fine print. ExxonMobil's world oil production forecast shows no contribution from "oil shale" even by 2030. Only about 4 million barrels of oil per day from Canadian "oil sands" are projected by 2030, accounting for a mere 3.3 percent of the predicted total world demand of 120 million barrels per day...
The oil interval is about to end. If you've ever seen a speed freak that couldn't get their speed, you'll recognize what this country is about to go through. It isn't pretty.