Update [2005-9-4 21:23:4 by HeyThereItsEric]:: I just figured out that the first link is the Hurricane Pam Exercise Background CD. Title changed to reflect this.
This CD was produced by the Center for the Study of Public Health Impacts of Hurricanes (CSPHIH) at Louisiana State University to aid participants to the Hurricane Pam Exercise better understand the impact of a Category 3 hurricane on the greater New Orleans area as well as SE and Central Louisiana.*
Update [2005-9-4 4:45:2 by HeyThereItsEric]:: It sounds like I need to delete this, but I can't find mention of the "COASTAL LAND LOSS" document elsewhere on Kos [snip]. I hope someone more awake can follow up in a better-written diary.
There are several documents at
http://hurricane.lsu.edu/floodprediction/PAM_Exercise04/
HURRICANE PAM EXERCISE
July 2004
From the document COASTAL LAND LOSS: HURRICANES AND NEW ORLEANS
Floodwaters would have residence times of weeks. The resultant mix of sewage, corpses and chemicals in these standing flood waters would set the stage for massive disease outbreaks and prolonged chemical exposure.
The City of New Orleans was built on wetlands. Leveeing and draining has resulted in substantial subsidence such that most of New Orleans is now below sea level, with a maximum deflation of 13 feet. Within this bowl reside approximately 600,000 people. The West Bank, south of New Orleans and across the Mississippi River, has a population of about 500,000 who also live within levee protected bowls. Recent research reveals that a slow moving Category 3 hurricane, or stronger, could cause levee overtopping and complete flooding of New Orleans, with the West Bank even more susceptible. Floodwaters would have residence times of weeks. The resultant mix of sewage, corpses and chemicals in these standing flood waters would set the stage for massive disease outbreaks and prolonged chemical exposure. Estimates are that 300,000 persons would be trapped and 700,000 would be homeless; thousands could perish.
Will New Orleans Flood?
New Orleans was built on wetlands. Leveeing and draining has resulted in substantial subsidence such that most of New Orleans is now below sea level, with a maximum deflation of 13 feet. Within this bowl reside 600,000 people. The West Bank, south of New Orleans across the Mississippi River also has a population of 500,000 who live within levee protected bowls. Computer simulations using both the SLOSH (Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes is a computerized model run by the National Hurricane Center) storm surge model as well as the ADCIRC (a parallel ADvanced CIRCulation model for oceanic, coastal and estuarine waters) model show that a slow moving Category 3 storm, on any number of tracks, could flood New Orleans, from levee to levee, completely filling the bowl. For Category 4 and 5 storms the situation looks even bleaker.
Sorry the next quote is so long, but this survey is
very important
A baseline survey has been collected from a random sample of 1,000 New Orleans residents. The primary data collection technique involved telephone surveys, with the sample selected via random-digit dialing. However, New Orleans contains many areas with high concentrations of poverty that could be designated underclass, because substantial portions of the population are either below the poverty line or living in extreme poverty. Representing the social and economic resources and the potential health needs of that segment of the population is both critical and difficult, because this segment of the population is least likely to evacuate. With the aid of social workers, these individuals were sampled in a door-to door survey.
The primary focus of the survey is to understand how residents of the New Orleans area would prepare for and respond to a major hurricane. First, we are assessing the network structures and resources of these residents to better understand the kinds of resources they have available, and to gain some sense of the extent to which individuals would use formal and informal sources of help. Second, we are asking residents about their past hurricane experience and how they would respond if a storm as dangerous as Andrew approached the New Orleans area. We include questions on past hurricane experiences; the availability of transportation; and how, under what circumstances, and in what direction they would evacuate if a hurricane approached the New Orleans area in the future. These questions include asking whether they know someone to whom they could go and whether they would go to a motel/hotel, shelter, someone's house, etc. if they evacuated. The questions include a third expanded section on hurricane evacuation. This section allows us to gain vital information on how the direction and severity of an approaching hurricane would affect the decision to evacuate and the timing of the evacuation. With all of this information, we will be able to better understand well the social and economic resources of New Orleans area residents. We will also gain more detailed information on evacuation response (Hurlbert, 2003).
Preliminary data from the survey are now available. Overall, 68.8% of respondents would leave the area, 9.8% would leave their homes but remain in the area, and 21.4% would remain in their homes. That 21.4% of respondents would remain in their homes is a startling and important statistic. This , because it indicates that nearly 1 in 4 New Orleans residents would refuse to leave their homes as a possibly deadly major hurricane approaches the City.
Public Health Outcomes, Phase One - Immediate Impacts
Present Corps of Engineers predictions are that if the New Orleans bowl fills, it will take 9 weeks to pump all of the water out, assuming the necessary permits are obtained. There will likely be a strong push by commercial fishing interests to restrict the out pumping for fears the contaminated water will severely impact the harvestable marine and estuarine species. Air evacuations by helicopter will ensure the evacuation of thousands a day, but at the same time there will have to be mechanisms set up to get food, water and medicines to those trapped. An "Operation Dunkirk" effort will have to be launched from the north shore of Lake Pontchartrain, utilizing sport fishing and recreational boats to collect stranded New Orleans residents from the levees on the north side. On the south side, barges and commercial vessels will do their own river evacuations to centers such as Baton Rouge. Within the flooded city, where water levels in many areas will reach the eaves of houses, another small craft operation will have to be set up moving people and supplies to and from their places of refuge to the levees (high ground) and vice versa. This "Operation Dunkirk" evacuation and supply operation, using mostly volunteers, is going to require significant planning. Each crew will need emergency supplies and radio/cellular phone communications, a stock of medicines, and medical experts with whom to communicate. Insurance issues and waivers will have to be negotiated.
...Remaining occupied structures, abandoned warehouses, high-rise office buildings, and all unflooded upper stories - many serving as commandeered shelters - will also face increased fire risks from downed power lines, disrupted floating gas lines, and gas pockets trapped in roofs and upper stories. Unfortunately, these fire risks will be met by understaffed and inadequately equipped firefighting and EMS personnel. Local fire departments will be denied ground access, will have inadequate airborne and marine firefighting equipment, and will have no water pressure except that supplied by siphon pumps.
Phase Two - Initial Recovery
During the time from the end of the first week to the second month (initial recovery) there will be complex human population fluxes - people allowed home, others kept in evacuation centers, movement from one center to another, further evacuations, and possibly a floating uncontrolled criminal population.
Like hell they didn't know.
Update [2005-9-4 4:33:5 by HeyThereItsEric]:: Title change to reflect specific document, rather than "Hurricane Pam" general story.
[Update] It's 4:00am and I'm going to sleep. I may not be competent with the search engine, but I haven't found any mention of this document. If the document quoted has been diaried, I will jump on the grenade and take the social and mojo hit. I will also take the mojo hit for not extensively commenting or adding information. I am aware that that is breaking the rules, and I should delete this. But I'm willing to have my diary privileges revoked to get the URLs out.