More and more, it strikes me that in many of the debates, news reports, entertainment plots, and general information that surrounds us, there is an assumption that is closely akin to the idea that magic works. By magic, I do not, of course, mean the idea that rituals and incantations and invocation of demons and genii have meaning. Instead, I define magic as the idea that things work simply. Cause and effect are direct and quick. Proof is the same thing as truth. Facts are simple and easily discovered. Someone is always in charge, and we can always find a single point of failure to blame when things go wrong. The world is simple. We can understand it in a ten-second sound bite. Life makes sense.
I label the opposite of this magical attitude – for want of a better word and in order to front-load where I stand – reason. Reason is aware of the advances in science, mathematics, and understanding of the real world that have taken place in the past century or so. Reason recognizes that the world is a complex place, and that the future is neither fixed nor, often, predictable with any certainty.
Magic is often wrong, never in doubt. Reason thrives on doubt, tries to cover more bases, keeps an open mind, and can deal with surprises.
Here are some examples:
** I heard an NPR report on a study that found that drugs for depression only work at most a third of the time. The assumption was that doctors should have one single "magic bullet" drug that works for everyone, every time. Reason would tell us that depression is a complex condition, that people are different, and that no one drug can cure everything. Reason would conclude that the finding of the study, that doctors need to try out different drugs for different patients to find which ones work for which people, at which times, is no surprise. It’s perfectly, well, reasonable that there is no magic bullet. Were this kind of thinking to be taken to its absurd limit, we can imagine that the doctor who discovered that scurvey is caused by lack of vitamin C would be told, "That's OK for scurvey, but it doen't cure malaria, so it's no good."
** Technicians in "CSI: New York" test a poison found in a victim’s body and find that it matches the venom of a rare spider by "only" 95%. Magic says that scientific tests are all imbued with certainty, and that there is no room for less than 100% results. In the show, it turns out that the venom used by the killer was "artificial" spider venom, and that the killer was easily identified because she worked in a perfume company and had "access to chemicals." Reason tells us that tests of complex organic compounds that have degraded under conditions of moisture, heat, and a decomposing body can never be 100% certain, if, indeed, any real scientific experimental results ever are. The logic of this show had more holes than are usual in tv cop shows, but the nature of the magical thinking was quite common.
** Courtroom trials are prime examples of magical thinking. The prosecution has to "prove" its case; the defense only has to establish doubt. That both standards have to be "reasonable" is often – especially by defense counsels – forgotten. It is so common that lawyers have given it the name, "The CSI Effect." See above.
** "Underlying V for Vendetta is yet more magical thinking about that evil omnipotent genius, George W. Bush." This from a review of the film on Slate by Matt Feeny.
** Political debate is filled with magical thinking. If elected, I will solve this problem with my magic plan. My opponent cannot prove that his plan will work. That all sides can make both claims is, of course, never brought up.
Magic thinking is not something that has appeared – pardon the term – by magic. Those who are in charge of our political system, our educational system, our news and entertainment providers, have an interest in keeping things simple. The cops have to find the killer by the end of the hour, every time. The voters have to have slogans they can use to guide their hands to the right lever, without subjecting them to the burden of too much thought (which will probably end up keeping them at home on Election Day). Our schools have to have simple means of measuring success, so tests are the answers to all our problems, even if the information tested for has no relevance in the real world, and might even be obsolete by the time the student reaches it.
A lot of what I’ve written above sounds, well, not just reasonable, but obvious. The trouble is that these are but tiny examples of magic thinking that fill all our days. When they are pointed out to the average citizen, many times people will say, "Well, of course, I knew that." But when they aren’t pointed out, people just pass on to the next stage of the important business of living their lives, and they don’t recognize that magical thinking has, in fact, mislead them into believing things that just aren’t true.
The trouble is, if enough magic thinking overwhelms reason in the public sphere, it can do real damage to our health, safety, welfare, and prosperity. And with an administration convinced that magic is the answer to all our problems as well as the key to their own power and wealth, we are in real trouble. With an environment filled with magic, it then turns out that reason has a hard time getting even noticed.
And that’s bad.