Let's say you want to start a shooting war with another country. Although the American public is militaristic and loves a good war on TV, it doesn't like to see its forces portrayed as aggressors, so you need a good excuse, what the old timers called a casus belli. Fortunately, the government and armed forces of the United States are full of well-trained leaders who know how to gin up an excuse for war quickly. As a service to Kossacks who don't think much about starting wars, here is a short list of military provocation tricks. I will use the nation of Iran in my examples, but the methods work for any country.
- Border incursions. Aircraft and ships go "off course" all the time. Despite having the finest high-tech navigation equipment in the world, US planes and ships could "inadvertently" stray into Iranian territory. Incursions can be made very exciting by having the intruder activate weapons radars or fire warning shots. Sufficient repetition of this provocation will draw an armed response, either accidental or intentional.
- Cat and mouse games. Aircraft and ships maneuvering in international waters or airspace can engage in the military equivalent of "chicken" games, involving dangerously close maneuvers. Sooner or later, a collsion, and possibly a shooting engagement will result.
- Covert armed raids. There is a small but active anti-government guerrilla movement inside Iran. Teams of US agents can be inserted into this guerrilla force to increase its destructive power. Provocative clues in the form of weapons and ammunition of US origin can be left behind to rile up the Iranian authorities.
- False flag operations. The killing of "Iranian" agents bearing false documentation can be staged to show that Iran is actively attacking US forces in Iraq. This tactic can also be used to associate Iran with "terrorist" attacks against US interests.
- Violation of diplomatic immunity. Raids on embassies and consulates or arrest of Iranian diplomatic personnel can generate considerable friction, and even retaliation. An extreme form of this tactic is the "accidental" bombing of an Iranian diplomatic mission.
- Blockade or seizure of ships. Under the pretext of searching for "terrorist" contraband, a blockade and/or seizure of Iranian ships is a very aggressive form of provocation. It also affords the opportunity of planting "evidence" of hostile intent.
A prudent nation does not respond quickly to military provocations, but if the provocations are sustained and cleverly executed, an accidental military response is difficult to avoid, because of inevitable lapses in training or judgement on the part of the military rank and file. Thus, provocation usually "succeeds" in producing an excuse for war.