I think most of us at Kos have started moving beyond the tired old red state/blue state formulation. Every state has its red areas and blue areas, and moreover, they’re in constant flux; everywhere is reddening or bluening, or vacillating back and forth. I’ve often wondered about how to express that concept in an easy-to-digest table, and finally decided to let my inner stats-geek out.
The table I’ve created lists all of the nation’s counties (and independent cities) with a 2000 population over 250,000. They’re ordered from 1 to 230, with 1 being most Democratic and 230 being most Republican. Democraticness is measured in order of percentage of the total vote that the Democratic presidential candidate received. (So, for 2004, we start with Washington, DC, where Kerry got 89.1% of the vote, then San Francisco, CA, where he got 83.0% of the vote, all the way down to Utah County, UT, where he got 11.6% of the vote.)
You’ll also note that they’re ordered based on their 2004 numbers, but for comparison purposes, I’ve also included their ranks for the 1988, 1992, 1996, and 2000 elections, so you can see how each county has evolved over time. This lets us see the real rising stars (for instance, Delaware County, PA, rose from 156 to 121 to 113 to 78 to 65 from ’88 to ’04, probably the most striking turnaround from conservative stronghold to reliably blue), and see who’s dropping off the map for us (the most alarming plunge was probably Galveston County, TX, falling from 60 to 105 to 130 to 177 to 187).
Let me explain a little further by responding in advance to some of the most likely comments:
My county’s not on there!
That’s because it had fewer than 250,000 people in the year 2000. I arbitrarily drew the line there since too long a table would cause readers’ eyes to glaze over, but I wanted it to be long enough to include more than just the very biggest counties. At any rate, more than 55% of the nation’s population lives in these 230 counties, so I think it accounts for a big enough slice of the pie. I’d love to include more counties, and more electoral years, but I want to avoid the tuning-out that goes with a data deluge.
My county’s not that conservative!
It probably isn’t. The larger counties tend to have most of the liberals in them. The smaller counties tend to be more conservative. So, a list of the 230 largest counties will tend to skew liberal. The median county (#115... in 2004, it’s Pierce County, WA) is lean-Dem. And counties that are down in the lower reaches of this list (in the 140 to 170 range, let’s say) are, in practice, still kind of purplish, giving Democratic presidential candidates at least 45% of their vote. On the other hand, if I’d ranked all 3,114 counties, it would skew much differently... the median county would be only about 35-40% Democratic, because the vast majority of counties are rural, lightly populated, and pretty conservative.
My county dropped 40 places between 2000 and 2004! Aaaagh! The Democratic Party is doomed!
While there’s not much volatility at the left and right ends of the spectrum, you probably noticed there’s a lot of volatility in the middle. That’s a distortion caused by using a 1 to 230 rank as the criterion, instead of just listing percentage totals. A lot of counties are in the 50% range, so a fluctuation of a few percentage points can be a big change in the rankings. (I chose listing ranks instead because people tend to ‘get’ ranks immediately instead of having to puzzle through what they mean.)
For instance, look at Rockland County, NY. It was at #66 in 2000; it was #128 in 2004. Total catastrophic collapse, and the Democratic Party’s future in New York is bleak, right? Well, the Gore percentage in 2000 was 56.7%, and the Kerry percentage in 2004 was 48.9%... an embarrassing drop, certainly, but one that doesn’t look quite as alarming. Also, consider that the Nader factor exerts a lot of skew on 2000 numbers in certain counties (as seen, for instance, in Boulder County, CO, zooming up from #112 to #25), so those counties shooting up in 2004 would depress the numbers in counties like Rockland where there was little Nader effect in 2000.
Or here’s another way of looking at it. Cumberland County, NC, is about as reliably centrist as counties come; its Dem vote percentages from ’88 to ’04 were 46.7%, 47.0%, 52.3%, 50.1%, and 48.1%. Yet, its rank wobbled around from 98 to 68 to 115 to 113 to 137. It didn’t really become any more liberal or conservative, but a lot of other counties around it did.
You don’t take downticket races into consideration!
That’s true. Also, I don’t take registration edges into consideration, or whether the residents of a particular county might vote Democratic with great reliability but still hold socially conservative views, or consider the number of Whole Foods vs. the number of Wal-Marts, or anything other than presidential votes. If anyone out there has a unified field theory of voter behavior that encapsulates all of that stuff into one equation, I’d love to hear it.
I don’t know what county I’m in!
A lot of county names are self-explanatory, but because many aren’t, I’ve also included the name of the major city in each county.
| | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 |
Washington, DC | Washington | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
San Francisco, CA | San Francisco | 5 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 2 |
Bronx, NY | Bronx | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
New York, NY | Manhattan | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
Baltimore city, MD | Baltimore | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
Prince George’s, MD | DC burbs | 21 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 |
Philadelphia, PA | Philadelphia | 7 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
St. Louis city, MO | St. Louis | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
Orleans, LA | New Orleans | 12 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 9 |
Suffolk, MA | Boston | 11 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 10 |
Alameda, CA | Oakland | 10 | 11 | 19 | 16 | 11 |
Kings, NY | Brooklyn | 8 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
Santa Cruz, CA | Santa Cruz | 15 | 17 | 56 | 33 | 13 |
De Kalb, GA | Atlanta burbs | 71 | 19 | 17 | 15 | 14 |
Queens, NY | Queens | 24 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 15 |
Multnomah, OR | Portland | 14 | 23 | 38 | 24 | 16 |
Essex, NJ | Newark | 35 | 21 | 14 | 12 | 17 |
Cook, IL | Chicago | 38 | 15 | 16 | 18 | 18 |
Denver, CO | Denver | 18 | 22 | 26 | 31 | 19 |
San Mateo, CA | SF burbs | 40 | 27 | 34 | 23 | 20 |
Wayne, MI | Detroit | 20 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 21 |
Hudson, NJ | Jersey City | 52 | 28 | 13 | 14 | 22 |
Sonoma, CA | Santa Rosa | 34 | 31 | 66 | 46 | 23 |
Cuyahoga, OH | Cleveland | 28 | 33 | 32 | 27 | 24 |
Boulder, CO | Boulder | 51 | 43 | 92 | 112 | 25 |
Dane, WI | Madison | 22 | 26 | 53 | 35 | 26 |
Montgomery, MD | DC burbs | 63 | 25 | 36 | 28 | 27 |
King, WA | Seattle | 50 | 48 | 57 | 42 | 28 |
Broward, FL | Ft. Lauderdale | 76 | 40 | 22 | 19 | 29 |
Middlesex, MA | Cambridge | 45 | 51 | 23 | 32 | 30 |
Santa Clara, CA | San Jose | 64 | 57 | 52 | 37 | 31 |
Bristol, MA | New Bedford | 41 | 62 | 20 | 22 | 32 |
Washtenaw, MI | Ann Arbor | 57 | 30 | 39 | 45 | 33 |
Los Angeles, CA | Los Angeles | 62 | 35 | 37 | 25 | 34 |
Ramsey, MN | St. Paul | 16 | 38 | 44 | 67 | 35 |
Providence, RI | Providence | 27 | 54 | 21 | 20 | 36 |
Mahoning, OH | Youngstown | 13 | 41 | 27 | 38 | 37 |
Camden, NJ | Camden | 96 | 53 | 33 | 21 | 38 |
Contra Costa, CA | SF burbs | 68 | 44 | 65 | 49 | 39 |
Milwaukee, WI | Milwaukee | 17 | 46 | 45 | 51 | 40 |
Mercer, NJ | Trenton | 70 | 58 | 40 | 34 | 41 |
Lake, IN | Gary | 33 | 24 | 28 | 30 | 42 |
Hampden, MA | Springfield | 37 | 81 | 30 | 52 | 43 |
Albany, NY | Albany | 29 | 39 | 29 | 39 | 44 |
New Castle, DE | Wilmington | 104 | 73 | 69 | 44 | 45 |
Monterey, CA | Monterey | 81 | 67 | 84 | 61 | 46 |
Palm Beach, FL | W. Palm Beach | 113 | 77 | 47 | 29 | 47 |
Norfolk, MA | Boston burbs | 69 | 75 | 35 | 47 | 48 |
Lucas, OH | Toledo | 49 | 56 | 48 | 56 | 49 |
Genesee, MI | Flint | 25 | 34 | 31 | 26 | 50 |
Hennepin, MN | Minneapolis | 46 | 64 | 76 | 82 | 51 |
Hinds, MS | Jackson | 119 | 85 | 78 | 87 | 52 |
Fulton, GA | Atlanta | 36 | 20 | 41 | 59 | 53 |
Union, NJ | Elizabeth | 107 | 79 | 54 | 41 | 54 |
Hartford, CT | Hartford | 54 | 66 | 50 | 40 | 55 |
Essex, MA | Boston burbs | 74 | 96 | 43 | 62 | 56 |
Cumberland, ME | Portland | 100 | 102 | 81 | 96 | 57 |
Jackson, MO | Kansas City | 31 | 50 | 60 | 48 | 58 |
Westchester, NY | NYC burbs | 103 | 61 | 51 | 50 | 59 |
Lane, OR | Eugene | 30 | 59 | 110 | 99 | 60 |
Ingham, MI | Lansing | 84 | 78 | 75 | 63 | 61 |
Shelby, TN | Memphis | 86 | 36 | 70 | 70 | 62 |
Solano, CA | Vallejo | 66 | 60 | 68 | 64 | 63 |
Allegheny, PA | Pittsburgh | 23 | 32 | 87 | 68 | 64 |
Delaware, PA | Philly burbs | 156 | 121 | 113 | 78 | 65 |
Richland, SC | Columbia | 116 | 47 | 71 | 79 | 66 |
Summit, OH | Akron | 58 | 88 | 94 | 88 | 67 |
Erie, NY | Buffalo | 42 | 98 | 72 | 69 | 68 |
Worcester, MA | Worcester | 88 | 95 | 46 | 72 | 69 |
Middlesex, NJ | New Brunswick | 111 | 87 | 61 | 43 | 70 |
Lorain, OH | Lorain | 61 | 101 | 90 | 86 | 71 |
El Paso, TX | El Paso | 55 | 49 | 24 | 57 | 72 |
Travis, TX | Austin | 48 | 65 | 91 | 193 | 73 |
New London, CT | New London | 92 | 111 | 88 | 74 | 74 |
Montgomery, PA | Philly burbs | 157 | 104 | 121 | 83 | 75 |
Passaic, NJ | Paterson | 132 | 108 | 62 | 60 | 76 |
St. Clair, IL | E. St. Louis | 32 | 29 | 55 | 73 | 77 |
Pulaski, AR | Little Rock | 118 | 18 | 42 | 81 | 78 |
Hidalgo, TX | McAllen | 9 | 16 | 18 | 36 | 79 |
Davidson, TN | Nashville | 95 | 37 | 67 | 58 | 80 |
St. Louis, MO | St. L. burbs | 106 | 92 | 122 | 102 | 81 |
Franklin, OH | Columbus | 154 | 139 | 129 | 122 | 82 |
New Haven, CT | New Haven | 89 | 120 | 73 | 54 | 83 |
Onondaga, NY | Syracuse | 94 | 112 | 101 | 80 | 84 |
Erie, PA | Erie | 59 | 63 | 86 | 91 | 85 |
Plymouth, MA | Plymouth | 117 | 157 | 74 | 77 | 86 |
Fairfax, VA | DC burbs | 167 | 122 | 141 | 133 | 87 |
Santa Barbara, CA | Santa Barbara | 110 | 106 | 137 | 136 | 88 |
Burlington, NJ | Philly burbs | 143 | 116 | 95 | 71 | 89 |
Snohomish, WA | Seattle burbs | 87 | 142 | 112 | 100 | 90 |
Miami-Dade, FL | Miami | 112 | 70 | 49 | 93 | 91 |
Pima, AZ | Tucson | 83 | 82 | 93 | 104 | 92 |
Atlantic, NJ | Atlantic City | 123 | 94 | 85 | 53 | 93 |
Washington, OR | Portland burbs | 101 | 136 | 132 | 123 | 94 |
Nassau, NY | Long Island | 129 | 76 | 64 | 55 | 95 |
Gloucester, NJ | Philly burbs | 145 | 134 | 97 | 65 | 96 |
Polk, IA | Des Moines | 26 | 69 | 79 | 101 | 97 |
Bergen, NJ | NYC burbs | 139 | 109 | 89 | 75 | 98 |
Clark, NV | Las Vegas | 141 | 128 | 123 | 105 | 99 |
Mecklenburg, NC | Charlotte | 147 | 107 | 125 | 128 | 100 |
Baltimore, MD | Baltimore burbs | 127 | 90 | 116 | 92 | 101 |
Bernalillo, NM | Albuquerque | 105 | 84 | 128 | 126 | 102 |
Fairfield, CT | Bridgeport | 150 | 145 | 119 | 94 | 103 |
Madison, IL | St. L. burbs | 47 | 42 | 82 | 9 | 104 |
Jefferson, TX | Beaumont | 19 | 45 | 77 | 95 | 105 |
Luzerne, PA | Wilkes-Barre | 75 | 89 | 99 | 97 | 106 |
Bucks, PA | Philly burbs | 159 | 140 | 155 | 108 | 107 |
Honolulu, HI | Honolulu | 53 | 71 | 58 | 76 | 108 |
Lehigh, PA | Allentown | 124 | 131 | 151 | 125 | 109 |
Montgomery, OH | Dayton | 133 | 126 | 106 | 117 | 110 |
Stark, OH | Canton | 114 | 141 | 143 | 140 | 111 |
Monroe, NY | Rochester | 78 | 123 | 83 | 106 | 112 |
Adams, CO | Denver burbs | 56 | 93 | 102 | 110 | 113 |
Marion, IN | Indianapolis | 142 | 159 | 170 | 129 | 114 |
Pierce, WA | Tacoma | 73 | 110 | 103 | 103 | 115 |
Volusia, FL | Daytona Beach | 128 | 118 | 114 | 90 | 116 |
Jefferson, KY | Louisville | 91 | 55 | 98 | 118 | 117 |
Guilford, NC | Greensboro | 122 | 83 | 136 | 127 | 118 |
Northampton, PA | Bethlehem | 93 | 99 | 127 | 107 | 119 |
Orange, FL | Orlando | 211 | 188 | 152 | 114 | 120 |
Oakland, MI | Detroit burbs | 173 | 150 | 133 | 119 | 121 |
Sacramento, CA | Sacramento | 90 | 97 | 107 | 120 | 122 |
Pinellas, FL | St. Petersburg | 135 | 158 | 117 | 109 | 123 |
Suffolk, NY | Long Island | 161 | 148 | 96 | 85 | 124 |
Winnebago, IL | Rockford | 108 | 100 | 146 | 131 | 125 |
Cameron, TX | Brownsville | 39 | 52 | 25 | 84 | 126 |
Dallas, TX | Dallas | 140 | 185 | 148 | 157 | 127 |
Rockland, NY | NYC burbs | 126 | 72 | 59 | 66 | 128 |
Lake, IL | Chicago burbs | 185 | 171 | 154 | 132 | 129 |
Clackamas, OR | Portland burbs | 85 | 147 | 140 | 141 | 130 |
Macomb, MI | Detroit burbs | 160 | 161 | 111 | 115 | 131 |
Wake, NC | Raleigh | 125 | 103 | 150 | 149 | 132 |
Caddo, LA | Shreveport | 137 | 74 | 63 | 116 | 133 |
Dakota, MN | M/SP burbs | 72 | 135 | 105 | 143 | 134 |
St. Joseph, IN | South Bend | 80 | 91 | 118 | 121 | 135 |
Hillsborough, NH | Manchester | 200 | 166 | 124 | 145 | 136 |
Cumberland, NC | Fayetteville | 98 | 68 | 115 | 113 | 137 |
Ventura, CA | Oxnard | 176 | 167 | 169 | 139 | 138 |
Chester, PA | Philly burbs | 206 | 180 | 197 | 170 | 139 |
Rockingham, NH | Portsmouth | 190 | 176 | 134 | 151 | 140 |
Arapahoe, CO | Denver burbs | 165 | 173 | 185 | 172 | 141 |
Somerset, NJ | NYC burbs | 191 | 177 | 161 | 146 | 142 |
Hamilton, OH | Cincinnati | 172 | 170 | 176 | 183 | 143 |
Washoe, NV | Reno | 177 | 191 | 193 | 185 | 144 |
Dutchess, NY | Poughkeepsie | 168 | 175 | 153 | 144 | 145 |
Will, IL | Joliet | 146 | 144 | 139 | 135 | 146 |
Charleston, SC | Charleston | 151 | 133 | 159 | 166 | 147 |
Clark, WA | Vancouver | 67 | 138 | 144 | 154 | 148 |
Larimer, CO | Fort Collins | 121 | 153 | 182 | 201 | 149 |
Jefferson, CO | Denver burbs | 136 | 172 | 179 | 182 | 150 |
Prince William, VA | DC burbs | 205 | 184 | 180 | 165 | 151 |
Berks, PA | Reading | 182 | 183 | 196 | 169 | 152 |
San Diego, CA | San Diego | 166 | 164 | 168 | 153 | 153 |
Hillsborough, FL | Tampa | 153 | 165 | 138 | 142 | 154 |
Fayette, KY | Lexington | 149 | 137 | 135 | 160 | 155 |
Anoka, MN | M/SP burbs | 44 | 117 | 100 | 147 | 156 |
San Joaquin, CA | Stockton | 109 | 125 | 145 | 130 | 157 |
Dauphin, PA | Harrisburg | 138 | 162 | 171 | 167 | 158 |
Henrico, VA | Richmond burbs | 218 | 196 | 199 | 186 | 159 |
Forsyth, NC | Winston-Salem | 144 | 114 | 189 | 174 | 160 |
Sarasota, FL | Sarasota | 202 | 187 | 178 | 156 | 161 |
Jefferson, AL | Birmingham | 134 | 115 | 147 | 134 | 162 |
E. Baton Rouge, LA | Baton Rouge | 148 | 127 | 120 | 155 | 163 |
Du Page, IL | Chicago burbs | 217 | 211 | 200 | 190 | 164 |
Monmouth, NJ | Jersey Shore | 170 | 154 | 126 | 111 | 165 |
Harris, TX | Houston | 131 | 156 | 158 | 180 | 166 |
Marion, OR | Salem | 99 | 163 | 157 | 171 | 167 |
Pasco, FL | Tampa burbs | 115 | 146 | 108 | 124 | 168 |
Bexar, TX | San Antonio | 97 | 124 | 109 | 159 | 169 |
Kane, IL | Chicago burbs | 192 | 190 | 187 | 188 | 170 |
Orange, NY | Newburgh | 180 | 160 | 131 | 150 | 171 |
San Bernardino, CA | San Bernardino | 163 | 149 | 165 | 137 | 172 |
Westmoreland, PA | Pittsburgh burbs | 43 | 86 | 164 | 152 | 173 |
Spokane, WA | Spokane | 79 | 129 | 160 | 175 | 174 |
Anne Arundel, MD | Annapolis | 186 | 168 | 183 | 161 | 175 |
Richmond, NY | Staten Island | 171 | 152 | 104 | 98 | 176 |
Manatee, FL | Bradenton | 196 | 197 | 175 | 162 | 177 |
Nueces, TX | Corpus Christi | 65 | 80 | 80 | 148 | 178 |
Lancaster, NE | Lincoln | 77 | 143 | 166 | 192 | 179 |
Maricopa, AZ | Phoenix | 198 | 203 | 162 | 181 | 180 |
Fort Bend, TX | Houston burbs | 181 | 194 | 194 | 202 | 181 |
Hamilton, TN | Chattanooga | 175 | 132 | 174 | 179 | 182 |
Morris, NJ | NYC burbs | 210 | 206 | 190 | 184 | 183 |
Fresno, CA | Fresno | 82 | 113 | 156 | 176 | 184 |
Duval, FL | Jacksonville | 179 | 169 | 167 | 195 | 185 |
Brevard, FL | Melbourne | 221 | 210 | 192 | 164 | 186 |
Galveston, TX | Galveston | 60 | 105 | 130 | 177 | 187 |
Seminole, FL | Orlando burbs | 224 | 215 | 204 | 178 | 188 |
Riverside, CA | Riverside | 152 | 151 | 177 | 158 | 189 |
Marion, FL | Ocala | 201 | 178 | 195 | 173 | 190 |
St. Charles, MO | St. L. burbs | 178 | 186 | 198 | 191 | 191 |
Polk, FL | Lakeland | 203 | 179 | 163 | 163 | 192 |
Mobile, AL | Mobile | 164 | 155 | 181 | 189 | 193 |
Stanislaus, CA | Modesto | 102 | 130 | 149 | 168 | 194 |
Douglas, NE | Omaha | 120 | 200 | 203 | 198 | 195 |
Virginia Beach, VA | Virginia Beach | 216 | 207 | 191 | 194 | 196 |
Kent, MI | Grand Rapids | 189 | 195 | 206 | 205 | 197 |
Madison, AL | Huntsville | 204 | 174 | 186 | 187 | 198 |
McHenry, IL | Chicago burbs | 219 | 221 | 209 | 203 | 199 |
Lee, FL | Ft. Myers | 208 | 205 | 202 | 199 | 200 |
Orange, CA | Santa Ana | 214 | 208 | 208 | 197 | 201 |
Ocean, NJ | Jersey Shore | 199 | 189 | 142 | 138 | 202 |
Johnson, KS | K.C. burbs | 183 | 212 | 218 | 212 | 203 |
Ada, ID | Boise | 193 | 220 | 214 | 220 | 204 |
Jefferson, LA | N.O. burbs | 207 | 192 | 173 | 200 | 205 |
Salt Lake, UT | Salt Lake City | 158 | 209 | 184 | 217 | 206 |
Cobb, GA | Atlanta burbs | 225 | 204 | 212 | 207 | 207 |
Tarrant, TX | Ft. Worth | 169 | 201 | 188 | 208 | 208 |
Knox, TN | Knoxville | 184 | 119 | 172 | 196 | 209 |
Chesterfield, VA | Richmond burbs | 228 | 224 | 223 | 218 | 210 |
Sedgwick, KS | Wichita | 130 | 199 | 216 | 204 | 211 |
Allen, IN | Ft. Wayne | 195 | 202 | 210 | 211 | 212 |
Oklahoma, OK | Oklahoma City | 187 | 219 | 215 | 210 | 213 |
Tulsa, OK | Tulsa | 194 | 217 | 211 | 206 | 214 |
York, PA | York | 197 | 193 | 205 | 214 | 215 |
Spartanburg, SC | Spartanburg | 188 | 182 | 201 | 215 | 216 |
Collier, FL | Naples | 227 | 226 | 226 | 221 | 217 |
Escambia, FL | Pensacola | 209 | 213 | 219 | 216 | 218 |
Butler, OH | Cinci. burbs | 215 | 216 | 217 | 219 | 219 |
Lancaster, PA | Lancaster | 223 | 223 | 227 | 224 | 220 |
Gwinnett, GA | Atlanta burbs | 229 | 218 | 222 | 222 | 221 |
Tulare, CA | Visalia | 155 | 181 | 207 | 209 | 222 |
Greenville, SC | Greenville | 222 | 214 | 221 | 225 | 223 |
Kern, CA | Bakersfield | 174 | 198 | 213 | 213 | 224 |
El Paso, CO | Colorado Spgs | 220 | 225 | 225 | 226 | 225 |
Waukesha, WI | Milw. burbs | 162 | 222 | 220 | 223 | 226 |
Denton, TX | Dallas burbs | 212 | 227 | 224 | 227 | 227 |
Collin, TX | Dallas burbs | 226 | 229 | 228 | 228 | 228 |
Montgomery, TX | Houston burbs | 213 | 228 | 229 | 229 | 229 |
Utah, UT | Provo | 230 | 230 | 230 | 230 | 230 |