A few days ago, the ever insightful Stirling Newberry observed, on the Agonist Blog, that the Bush "surge" isn't really a new offensive; it is a desperate attempt to keep Baghdad under US military control. The last few days of fighting in the capital confirm that guerrillas have the initiative and can set ambushes at will. When US forces respond, the result is hour-long fire fights that don't permanently reduce the guerrilla presence. The Rumsfeld-designed propaganda machine deployed in Iraq is far more effective than the Bush counterinsurgency strategy. Thus, the situation on the ground is probably much worse than public knowledge indicates. Here are some further bits of evidence for this view.
- Fighting on Haifa street, only a mile from the Green Zone fortress, flared again yesterday. This area was supposedly cleared in a sweep operation a week ago. A raging gun battle, involving US attack helicopters, in the center of Baghdad signifies an out-of-control situation.
- Yesterday, a Blackwater helicopter was destroyed by insurgents, with all four mercenaries aboard killed. A second Blackwater helicopter was damaged, with one mercenary aboard killed. These helicopters were responding to an ambush of US diplomatic personnel travelling from the Green Zone. The insurgents are now taking down the best and boldest mercenaries. Blackwater's rent-a-Ninja program seems to be losing its magic.
- The Iraqi parliament continues to have difficulties with no-show representatives. The simplest explanation for the absence of these elected officials is that they fear for their lives. Travel to and from the Green Zone may be hazardous to their health.
- A few days ago, an American civilian aid worker travellig with security guards was ambushed and killed outside the Green Zone. It appears that the US can no longer ensure the security of its own personnel in Baghdad.
A reasonable interpretation of these fragments of information is that Baghdad, outside the Green Zone, is no longer effectively "occupied" by the US military. It has become a free-fire zone, dominated by whatever militia has momentary local superiority, and the US military has become just another militia. Thus, the belief that Bush's "surge" is a desperate reinforcement to prevent the overrunning of the Green Zone is a credible argument. Since many military observers view the surge as too little and too late, we may see Baghdad disintegrate into chaos before the end of Bush's term. This outcome would be fully consistent with the incompetent planning and execution of this disastrous war.