Schwartz is the author of the very influential Art of the Long View, the book that made scenarios a household word. This 2003 book is a follow-up to that, a very necessary one. In addition to cataloging the surprises that he thinks are inevitable, he also expounds on the importance of using scenarios correctly – as the Bush Administration recently failed to do.
The use of three scenarios (four is too confusing, two is too limiting) is now standard practice in almost any kind of planning. While this book came out too early to deal with the Go Long/Go Strong/ Go Home scenarios, Schwartz does discuss the failure of such obviously pre-determined planning. The purpose of scenarios is not to predict the future accurately. If it were that simple to predict the future, everyone would do it. The goal is to look at possibilities that stretch your thinking. Whether oil prices are going to go up or down, planners should break through their assumptions and prepare for futures that will not go the way they would like. This "re-perception" is the real value of using scenarios.
It also shows the phoniness of the Bush planning and scenario use during the run up to the surge. Going home was never a possibility and no amount of reality could make it so. Going long is the reality that has resulted, but those words could not be used, since they would expose the bankruptcy of the policy, even though it was likely the best description of the policy from the beginning. Go strong is also a misuse of words, since we are only going back to the number of troops that were insufficient in the past. It was predetermined what Bush's decision would be and no new thoughts or perceptions would be permitted. No voice would be given to futures that would not be to Bush's liking.
Moving from the immediate politics, the book is chock full of great ideas, especially for a reality based community. Schwartz even acknowledges the possibility that America will turn into a rogue super-power, citing that as one of the few events that can shutdown what he sees as an inevitable future of wonders. Don't worry. He is not looking through rose colored glasses. Vastly increased surveillance. The near certainty of deadly plagues. Large scale migrations, not all of them voluntary. That's part of the good news.
The most useful takeaway is the chapter on inevitable strategies – how to prepare not just for futures we can foresee, but those we can't. Even when the broad strokes are clear, the secondary effects of those strokes can be world changing.
Inevitable Surprises: Thinking Ahead in a Time of Turbulence
Chapter 1 - Inevitable Surprises
Chapter 2 - A World Integrated with Elders
Chapter 3 - The Great Flood of People
Chapter 4 - The Return of the Long Boom
Chapter 5 - The Thoroughly New World Order
Chapter 6 - A Catalog of Disorder
Chapter 7 - Breakthroughs in Breaking Through: Science and Technology
Chapter 8 - A Cleaner, Deadlier World
Chapter 9 - Inevitable Stratgeties