The West is shaping up to be the decisive region in Democrats' fight to win the White House in 2008. Our party convention will be in Denver. Nearly every Western state has seen strong Democratic gains in the past two cycles. (The weakest link, Idaho, still managed a six-seat Dem gain in its state legislature.) Nevada will hold its caucus just five days after Iowa, and California is eyeing a way to get its voice heard much earlier, too.
Below the fold, from one Western Democrat's perspective, are a few notes on how the candidates might appeal to red-state Dems and swing voters - key people we will need to win the White House next year. These evaluations are based on my C-SPAN viewing of the candidates' DNC winter meeting speeches, as well as my subjective perceptions of how each is being viewed in the West right now.
Disclosure: I'm a Dean Democrat who fully supported the Kerry-Edwards ticket, but it's going to be a while before I settle on anyone this year. We have several outstanding prospects in the 2008 race (with another sitting on the sidelines), and they gave us plenty to cheer and chew on during their speeches this weekend.
Chris Dodd: The Connecticut senator led with a tribute to Howard Dean, whose 2003 winter meeting speech electrified Democrats and catapulted the Vermont governor to favorite status among many Dems - including many Westerners - until the phony "electability" issue and the insular Iowa-New Hampshire contests torpedoed his chances. If Democrats truly listen to Americans and propose bold solutions, Dodd said, the 44th president will be a Democrat. Still, here in the West, Dodd will need to overcome the "Northeastern liberal" label. Dodd's challenge is injecting a freshness to his impressive resume that can convince people he hasn't been inside the Beltway too long. He can't do it merely by referencing his little kids; he'll need to do it with exciting and exacting policy ideas.
Barack Obama: As in other areas of the country, Obama is generating excitement among Westerners for his youthfulness and the idea he hasn't been around Washington long enough to be sullied by its cynicism. But there's also the concern that he is rising too far, too fast. Thus, Obama went for gravitas - and he did well. Obama knows that the country is aching for a far less rancid and rabidly partisan breed of politics. He is assiduously positioning himself as a progressive yet consensus-minded candidate best able to move the nation away from partisan bickering. This is a message that transcends regions and generations, but rhetoric alone can't convince voters that Obama has the breadth and depth of experience to lead the free world. Obama will need to surround himself early on with policy advisers and prospective cabinet members who can prove he'd have plenty of nationally experienced hands helping to lift us out of the morass.
Wes Clark: Many Democrats remain a little suspicious of Clark since he so recently joined our party, so his introduction wisely pointed out how he's worked on Dems' behalf over the past few years. He has outstanding military and foreign policy credentials, but the next president needs a strong domestic vision, too. With some of the nation's lowest wages and greatest dependence on automobiles, Westerners are especially keen to hear where a prospective president stands on economic and energy issues. Clark is simply too much of a niche candidate to deliver in these areas; indeed, he barely mentioned domestic policy in his speech. If we're lucky, he'll be the next Secretary of Defense.
John Edwards: The former vice presidential nominee has emerged as the economic populist candidate to beat, as well as one of our best orators. His speech didn't so much talk about the "two Americas" of haves and have-nots that he evoked in 2004, but of the ordinary struggles of everyday people. "Will you stand up for them?" Edwards asked repeatedly. Here in the West (as with the DNC meeting attendees), Edwards would do great among the Democratic base, but he seems to leave many swing voters cold. His street-fighting style - coupled with lingering suspicions that he's really just a slick lawyer posturing as a populist - may simply be too partisan for a region where libertarian-leaning independents outnumber Republicans and Democrats.
Dennis Kucinich: The longtime Ohio congressman is a steadfast voice for peace and reconciliation, and certainly that is the wish of most people in the world. We don't want to dwell in or perpetuate fear, here or abroad. But Kucinich's gauzy message doesn't just marginalize the reality of evil in our world. It barely acknowledges it. Most Westerners would probably say that a vote for Kucinich would send the pendulum of Bush-era arrogance and antagonism too far toward a naivete that we can't afford. Worse, he barely paid lip service to domestic concerns in his speech.
Hillary Clinton: Hillary had the best music, Jesus Jones' timeless "Right Here, Right Now." Her biggest problem in the West is that folks here want straight-shooters, and Clinton is perceived as an equivocator. (Her comment about a nonbinding resolution being "the first time that we will have said 'no' to President Bush" only served to point out how weak she and many other leading Dems have been in standing up to W's folly.) Additionally, the West is a region of constant reinvention, and many people here simply want to move beyond the Bush-Clinton-Bush era onto a truly new political frontier. That's particularly the case for swing voters, but for many Democrats, too. Clinton's perceived frontrunner status and strong command of the issues (never mind her millions) may yet propel her to the nomination, but I sense that she would not be the best choice for winning in much of the West.
Joe Biden: As usual, Biden proved himself a strong point man on foreign policy - someone who would be better equipped than much of the field to handle the mess in which the Bush administration will leave America's interests abroad. But Biden carries the same sort of baggage Chris Dodd does in terms the sense that he's been hanging around Washington too long. Like Wes Clark, he also seems markedly less interested in domestic affairs than foreign policy. The next president needs a sweeping and attainable vision for the former as well as capability to negotiate rough seas in the latter.
Bill Richardson: As our region's favorite son, Richardson could wind up the breakout candidate in the early Nevada caucus, and his winter meeting performance was almost pitch-perfect. Highlighting a resume that includes both strong international experience as U.N. Ambassador and state-level innovation (especially in energy and human rights), Richardson also proved to be one of the most personable speakers, blending humor with humility. (He delivered one of the single best lines of the speeches: "The war is a symptom. The disease is arrogance.") Richardson enters the race as a long shot, but here in the West, he's the second-tier candidate with the best chance of climbing higher.
Mike Gravel: The darkest of the dark horses - a former U.S. senator from Alaska who spurred release of the Pentagon Papers - is a maverick in a region that likes its outliers, but he's also a non-starter who last left public office a quarter-century ago. He may well outpoll Kucinich in a few Western states - meaning he'll get about 2% to Kucinich's 1%. Nevertheless, he'll be an entertaining and thought-provoking voice of conscience for as long as he lasts.
Tom Vilsack: As an orphan who grew up with troubled adoptive parents, Vilsack has a compelling personal story that many Americans can relate to. He also proudly claims the "outsider" mantle, even after two successful terms as Iowa governor; he notes that the last two times we Democrats won the presidency, it was with outsiders who were also governors. Vilsack's understated demeanor belies the fact he's one of the strongest populists in the field, but if his race gets any coverage at all, he will get some attention in the West.
After viewing all ten candidates, it's evident to me that we need to be sure we don't neglect the best of the second-tier candidates - particularly Richardson and Vilsack, two men who have done well in traditionally "red" states - in a race to prematurely coronate Clinton, Edwards, or Obama. Yes, it's debatable whether anyone can break through the mainstream media hype surrounding the Top 3 (any of whom I also believe would be a good president) to get serious consideration. That's why it makes it especially incumbent upon us - the netroots - to help the lesser-known but credible candidates get their time in the spotlight.