Last night, the AP ran an ominous breakdown of polling and anecdotal evidence from key political players. No suprises here: voters in Iowa and NH are fixated, above all, on Iraq:
Iraq is main issue for Iowa, N.H. voters
By HOLLY RAMER and MIKE GLOVER, Associated Press Writers
CONCORD, N.H. - When it comes to the Iraq war, apparently there is more than one right answer.
Among rank-and-file Democrats in early voting states like New Hampshire and Iowa, anti-war passion is so strong that it's difficult for their party's presidential candidates to oppose the war too forcefully. On the other hand, candidates don't want to go too far and risk losing swing voters critical to winning the general election...
What's so ominous about that, you ask?
More after the jump...
Democrats are already being perceived as callibrating their morality, pandering to war-sick Democrats with an I'll-get-us-out-of-Iraq-faster-than-you-will game. Worse, Repugs are already baiting us with "where's your plan?" rhetoric -- with some success.
It's a fallacious argument, of course -- asking us to unshit the bed they soiled so gleefully -- but voters are looking to this issue more than any to judge Democratic candidates. At least in Iowa and NH.
So that's where we're headed. "It's the war, stupid."
That's why Wes Clark's voice is needed more than ever in our Democratic political mix.
Here's more:
...[C]andidates in both parties are spinning and pivoting as they search for the right impression to convey on the issue that for many voters eclipses all others.
"Iraq is still the No. 1 issue. It will be the No. 1 issue through the presidential primary," said Marine Lt. Col. Joseph Kenney, a Republican state senator from Wakefield, N.H., who spent six months in Iraq last year. "We cannot fail in Iraq."
That's not how fellow state Sen. Jacalyn Cilley, a Democrat, sees it. She says she has just one question for any presidential candidate seeking her support: "If this Congress and this Senate do not get us out of Iraq by the time you take office, will this be your first act?"
"It's THE issue for me," said Cilley, of Barrington, N.H.
Ditto for Democrats and Republicans in Iowa, where party caucuses will kick off the presidential nominating season on Jan. 14, 2008.
So NH and Iowa, we're told, will be all about Iraq.
If that's the case, I'll be much, much happier if we have Wes Clark in the presidential primary mix. It's one thing for Tom Vilsack and Dennis Kucinich to one-up each other one how fast they can de-fund and end the Iraq occupation.
It's another thing entirely to have someone with Wes Clark's strategic and tactical military experience parsing strategies for withdrawal.
I don't want to be misunderstood: Vilsack, Kucinich, Edward, et al. are absolutely righteous in their attacks on Bush's war of choice.
But being righteous isn't the game for 2008; if that were a winning game, George McGovern would have won in 1972. No, our Democratic nominee will also have to be supremely credible on matters of national security-- and hands-down persuasive:
Polls conducted by Research 2000 in late December found Democrats in both states strongly against the war, but the Republican picture was more complicated.
In New Hampshire, 92 percent of Democrats said going to war against Iraq for regime change was not worth it, and 78 percent said they favored a drawdown of troops before 2010, the year the Pentagon has set for maintaining its current troop levels. In Iowa, 86 percent of Democrats said the war wasn't worth it and 76 percent favored a drawdown.
Among Republicans, more than half those surveyed — 54 percent in New Hampshire and 59 percent in Iowa — said going to war against Iraq for regime change was worthwhile. A majority — 57 percent in New Hampshire and 63 percent in Iowa — also opposed a drawdown of troops before the Pentagon's target of 2010.
Nevertheless, about a third of GOP voters surveyed in the two states agreed with the overwhelming majority of Democrats on the two questions.
Clearly, a righteous, credible and persuasive campaign against the Iraq occupation has the potential to make the Democratic Party the national majority party -- IF we have a candidate who has the credibility to get the word out: Democrats will get us out of Iraq, and make our country safer!
For that job, no one can match Wesley Clark. Whether or not you believe he should be our nominee, it's perfectly clear that on matters of war, his presence elevates the field.
Iowa Democratic strategist Joe Shannahan said Democrats are looking for realistic solutions.
"Somebody has got to step up and fix this," he said. "This war has been bungled and people are going to be looking for leadership from our candidates."
We need Clark now, more than ever.
It's the war, stupid.
No matter who you support for President, we may need to draft Clark just to raise the Democratic game.