It's a case of duelling frames. Either the seventh copter in 22 days crashed, or it didn't.
(A) Residents report Apache shot down
A U.S. Apache helicopter went down north of Baghdad on Sunday, local residents said, but the U.S. military said it was not aware of any such incident.
Residents reported seeing a missile hit the attack helicopter, which carries two crew, bringing it down in the Timayma area, near Taji, site of a major U.S. air base 20 km (12 miles) north of Baghdad.
or (B) US Military: No report of copter going down
Lt. Col. Josslyn Aberle, a U.S. military spokeswoman, said initial reports did not find that a helicopter had gone down, but she said the military check again to be sure.
What has my undivided attention
The two threads are from the same Reuters feed. Check out the text of the two links, you'll see what I mean. There is in truth only one story.
Fear not, it's not a Trend
Yesterday, General Richard Cody, the vice chief of staff for the Army, said that he sees no change in trends regarding the minor detail that since January 20, six (possibly seven now) U.S. helicopters in Iraq have been downed by hostile fire.
Cool. So, at a possible 7 copters every 22 days, that means the steady, unchanged trend comes out to merely 116 helicopters a year.
This would in General Cody's eyes be merely an extension of the 21 copters lost to hostile action between March 20, 2003 and January 20, 2007. Thus, our going from 5.5 copters a year to 116 a year, based on the latest sampling.
I just wanted you guys to rest easier, knowing that our civilian and military leadership are totally on top of this situation.
Where the missiles are coming from: Must be Iran (Yeah...that's the ticket...)
Officially, anything bad that happens, including the melting of the Greenland icecap, is directly attributable to Iran-sponsored terror.
After all, the Sunni groups that have, so far, claimed responsibility for five out of the six recent shoot-downs are Al-Qaida affiliates, and AQ has a dedicated hostility toward Iran that, of course, is merely cover for their undying loyalty to the mullahs in Teheran and their Badr death squad lackeys killing Sunnis in Iraq.
It's all complicated, I know. But when you realize as the Bushies do that there is no sectarian violence in Iraq on account all Muslims are exactly the same and look to Iran for guidance, then it's all transparent.
Did I mention the Greenland icecap's melting is Iran's fault, too?
Where REALITY says they're likely from: Saudi Arabia, leftover gear from the old regime, or arms on the international black market, or some of all three.
Saudis reportedly selling MISSILES to Sunni insurgents
Private Saudi citizens are giving millions of dollars to Sunni insurgents in Iraq and much of the money is used to buy weapons, including shoulder fired anti-aircraft missiles, according to key Iraqi officials and others familiar with the flow of cash.
...
In one recent case, an Iraqi official said $25 million in Saudi money went to a top Iraqi Sunni cleric and was used to buy weapons, including Strela, a Russian shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missile. The missiles were purchased from someone in Romania, apparently through the black market, he said.
They had at least 43 days to plan the first strike, perhaps many, many more.
This would perhaps be SA-16 or better missiles, rockets comparable to the Stinger in prowess, capable of taking out supersonic jets.
My guess is...these might be around, but they're not necesssary, as the SA-7's would do just fine against copters.
Why?
Because that's what they are designed for.
Meet the SA-7 Strela: A Born Copter Killer
Compliments of globalsecurity.org
The 9M32 STRELA-2 is a first-generation man-portable, shoulder-fired short-range anti-aircraft missile system, intended for destruction of both subsonic and supersonic air targets (fixed-wing aircraft, helicopters, UAV) in ground and low altitudes. Development of this relatively simple system (STRELA-2, or SA-7A) started in 1959 and its basic version was introduced after 1966.
But here's the money shot. I suspected the insurgents have been using the huge electronic signatures (ELINT) of American soldiers and their gear ever since the beginning.
Major improvements carried out in mid-70s consisted in the applications of a new-generation homing system which is not only more sensitive but also more resistant against IR jamming, or IR decoys, and has a substantially shorter reaction time. STRELA-2M can cooperate with a miniature elint seeker which can be fitted to the operator´s helmet and can locate sources of active radiation in an aircraft, like a radar, radar altimeter etc. Since late 70s, an adapted version was mounted on Mil Mi-24 (HIND E) combat helicopters particularly to combat helicopters. To date, STRELA-2 has been considered a very efficient weapon to destroy air targets. Its advantages include particularly the simplicity of construction and the way of rapid and easy employment. Due to its small dimensions and low weight it is easily portable.
Cheap, portable, easily concealed, with small modifications can be made to chase ECM jamming and detonate with a proximity fuse. For jets, this won't work; too high up, too fast. For low-flying copters (as in less than 10,000'), sorry. You might want to start flying as dark as you dare.
Crash Inventory
Number One
Black Hawk brought down in Diyala province, 12 dead. Al-Qaida affiliate claims responsibility. They're Sunnis. - This crash was diaried, as the dead included a number of key military personnel.
Number Two
Blackwater observer copter brought down in central Baghdad. Four of five slain reportedly shot in head, execution style. Presumed Sunni faction responsible.
Number Three
Crash in Najaf, presumably Shia faction responsible
Number Four
Apache downed near Taji. Sunni group claims responsibility.
Number Five
CH-46 brought down in Al-Anbar. Seven dead Sunnis likely. They don't trade much with Iran.
Conway, speaking to a gathering of government executives at a Washington hotel, said Marine troop transports generally fly at an altitude that puts them out of range of small arms fire from the ground, and he said they have special equipment on board that enables them to avoid being hit by the SA-7 that is the most frequently seen anti-aircraft missile among the insurgents. "We've had lots of SA-7s shot at us," he said.
"More troubling is the appearance of SA-16s and SA-18s," Conway said, referring to more modern, portable anti-aircraft missiles. The SA-16, which is an improved version of the SA-18, uses a more advanced infrared guidance system and is effective at altitudes of up to about 10,000 feet.
He said it was not clear whether the SA-16s and SA-18s that are now appearing had been stored in bunkers from Saddam Hussein's regime and overlooked by U.S. forces after the 2003 invasion, or are being brought into Iraq from neighboring countries.
Someone should tell SecDef Gates, that. Everybody knows it's Iranians sending missiles to blood enemy Sunni Arabs. I mean, really.
Number Six
Contractor Sea Knight copter shot down south of Baghdad. Sunni group claiming responsibility. Highly unlikely to have any Iranian backing.
Word is this copter was brought down (controlled landing, later destroyed from the air) by heavy caliber machine gun fire. You don't have to blow up a helicopter to impair helicopter operations.
Number Seven
Still pending (see Intro above for now)