As Stirling Newberry observed some time ago, the American army in Iraq will be defeated if it loses control of the road network. Today's NYT reveals some disturbing statistics on rapidly increasing US helicopter flight hours in Iraq.
He said that helicopter transport had become ever more critical over the past few years as ground convoys have become increasingly dangerous. In 2005, Army helicopters logged 240,000 hours, and in 2006 the figure was 334,000 hours, General Simmons said. The projected number in 2007 is 400,000 hours, he said.
"In many cases it’s more efficient, it’s more effective to move people and supplies by air than it is by ground," the general said. He added that it had also generally been safer.
NYT story on insurgent threat to US helicopters
Let's consider what these statistics mean.
- It is clear that US reliance on helicopters (and, presumably, fixed-wing aviation) has increased sharply since the beginning of the war, increasing 40% in 2006 alone.
- Helicopter transportation is the most expensive mode of travel available in Iraq, thus it can be assumed that increasing resort to helicopter transport is a matter of necessity.
- The increase in fuel, maintenance, and replacement costs of the shift from road transport to helicopters is probably contributing substantially to spiralling Iraq war costs.
- Helicopters cannot fully substitute for road transport, particularly for bulky materiel, such as fuel, water, food, ammunition, and vehicles. Although emergency supplies can be delivered by helicopter, further reduction in availability of road transport will probably result in the forced withdrawal of US forces from Iraq.
- The ability of insurgents to interdict road convoys appears to be increasing steadily, with the appearance of improved anti-vehicle bombs (EFPs) and jam-proof triggers. US efforts to harden convoys cannot keep pace with the increasing threat in an affordable manner. There are simply too many soft-skinned vehicles in the US inventory to permit wholesale replacement.
- The signs of a growing ability of insurgents to shoot down US helicopters is eerily reminiscent of the tipping point of the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. The Russians lost over 300 armored attack helicopters after the US provided Stinger missiles to the Afghan rebels.
- Since the US Department of Defense is waging a domestic propaganda war to prevent "defeatism" in the US, we can assume that the undisclosed statistics on the US logistics situation in Iraq are even more distressing that what has been publicly disclosed.
- If the US Congress does not act soon to end the US occupation of Iraq, there is a significant danger of a collapse of the supply network that sustains US forces and a resultant military disaster.