The BBC's 10 pm news is leading on an exclusive which they claim is the plan of attack and the triggers.
The triggers are claimed to be either if Iran is shown to have a nuclear bomb or US forces are involved in a "major" attack in Iraq traceable to Iran.
The BBC claims that the attack plan is in place and that the targetting has already been done.
Their Tehran correspondent says that the Iranians are regarding this as sabre rattling in advance of the UN deadline.
Today also saw the publication of theOxford Research report for January. This is its assessment of the build-up in the Persian Gulf:
Finally, the naval build-up in the Persian Gulf continued in the latter part of January, with the carrier battle group centred on the USS John C Stennis en route to the region to back up the existing carrier battle group. A third carrier battle group centred on the USS Ronald Reagan, left San Diego for the West Pacific on 27 January, with the potential to move on to the Indian Ocean. In a separate development, a powerful Expeditionary Strike Group (ESG) centred on the large amphibious warfare ship the USS Bataan transited the Suez Canal on 30 January, also heading for the Gulf to join an existing ESG centred on the USS Boxer. Even without additional units that might be moved into the region, this already amounts to a very large naval deployment, certainly the largest for nearly four years.
The amphibious warfare ships are particularly relevant because they hardly relate to the situation in Iraq, given that the Iraqi seaboard on the Persian Gulf is under the control of coalition forces. They would, though, be highly relevant to any confrontation with Iran, since they give the United States the capacity to engage in a wide range of actions against Iranian naval and revolutionary guard units on the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea coasts. The US military build-up does not necessarily mean that a war with Iran is imminent. It does mean that the United States is deploying substantial forces to the region and that these forces are highly appropriate should a conflict with Iran develop in the coming months.
In other news today a Sunni muslim was executed in Zahedan in SE Iran over the killing of 11 members of the Revolutionary Guard in a bomb attack last week. The attack was said to be organised by Jundallah, a Sunni radical group based in Pakistan. Last week theDaily Telegraph reported that the group were holding eight kidnapped Iranian soldiers hostage. The group have been active in Iran:
They claim to have killed 400 Iranian soldiers in hit-and-run operations. Teheran's Shia government has accused the US of supporting the Sunni group and is trying to persuade President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan to intercede on behalf of the eight hostages.
But the Jundallah deny any link with either the US or the Pakistani government. Although they hold out little hope of their 16 members being freed, they hardly appear to care. "If they hang all the 16 of our colleagues, we do not mind because we know they would be martyrs and will go straight to heaven," said Hameed.
The BBC report of the execution makes it clear that despite this denial, the Iranians are linking the attack with the USA.
Crowds chanted "Death to America" and "Death to Israel" as they watched the hanging. It took place in the same location as the crime, something which correspondents say is common in Iran.
Clearly both the diplomatic initiatives by the USA and these terrorist attacks are being seen as provocative by Iran. If a response is made - either in Iraq or more likely over the border into Pakistan, this could well be the trigger that Bush is seeking to justify an attack on Iran.
Update [2007-2-19 17:37:53 by londonbear]:The BBC report is now online in written form (a link to a video should be up later).
The US insists it is not planning to attack, and is trying to persuade Tehran to stop uranium enrichment.
The UN has urged Iran to stop the programme or face economic sanctions.
But diplomatic sources have told the BBC that as a fallback plan, senior officials at Central Command in Florida have already selected their target sets inside Iran.
BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner says the trigger for such an attack reportedly includes any confirmation that Iran was developing a nuclear weapon - which it denies.
Alternatively, our correspondent adds, a high-casualty attack on US forces in neighbouring Iraq could also trigger a bombing campaign if it were traced directly back to Tehran.