If this has been diaried, I really don't care. I'm writing it more for myself and thank you for stopping by. I've grown to respect Charlie Cook quite a bit. His predictions were accurate but cautious and he was the first to come out with a solid, statistically based "Who the Hell are they kidding" column when the GOP's self-immolation in November 2006 was portrayed as "not that bad."
I like this column because it echoes something I wrote about a lot last year and applies this year: Politics is a game played under a clock.
I got this from the governmentexecutive.com feed, "ON POLITICS" since it's screened at National Journal. Written on February 20, 2007, it describes the "Vicious Cycle" the GOP now finds itself in. Not one to mince words, Cook sets the stage thusly:
Just over three months ago, the GOP took a beating in the midterm elections, losing the majorities it had held for 12 years in the House and 11 of the past 12 years in the Senate. President Bush's approval ratings are abysmal, locked in the low 30s. If his numbers drop much lower, they will rival those of President Nixon just before he was forced from office.
Cook then does his typical adroit explanation of applicable polling, with the bottom line that when independents are "pushed" and because indies vote substantially in accord with their "leanings" the numbers of people identifying themselves as or with Democrats has gained a whopping margin over those who are, or lean, Republican--and it's a large sample size, in excess of 30,000 polled. Witnesseth:
When independents were "pushed" -- that is, asked which party they leaned toward -- the Democratic advantage ballooned to 10.2 points: 50.4 percent to 40.2 percent for Republicans. That's the biggest advantage either party has enjoyed since Gallup began pushing leaners in 1991 -- and it is significant. Leaners tend to end up voting for the party they tilt toward almost as consistently as do voters who say they belong to that party.
Cook does the responsible thing and talks about Republicans taking "some solace from the fact that the next national election -- when they might have a chance to turn things around -- is less than 21 months away" but I see it differently.
As things were coming unglued in Iraq and for Republicans domestically last year, I kept watching--and urging others to watch--the Congressional calendar. The GOP had a serious clock problem: Bad things keeped a happenin' and they had no time to turn anything around. And, since the Dems were not in control, there were no failings to pin upon them.
A similar situation applies from now until 2008. The GOP has a terrible hand. A solid, disciplined Democratic House majority can kick the crap out of the Republicans on all the right issues, domestic and international, and investigate the Hell out of the Maladministration. But the Republicans in the Senate know that they have to keep things bottled up to maintain their own base's support. This has the double-whammy of making Senate Republicans into the obstructionists and not giving the Democrats' legislation a chance to pass into law and look bad. What's more, if something does pass both chambers and it's not to President Insaniac's liking, he'll just veto it, letting the D's off the hook and descending even further into the depths of unpopularity (think "stem cells") which will further depress the 2008 ticket and alienate the independents and moderates.
Then add this little bon mot where we find out what vicious cycle we're talking about:
Simply put, if a sizable number of GOP incumbents become pessimistic about their party's chances of reclaiming its majorities or if they conclude that getting beaten at the polls next year is a real possibility, we might see a disproportionate number of Republican retirements.
If the GOP is forced to defend a large number of open seats, its chances of making a successful comeback in 2008 will get even worse. Beyond the issue of wholesale retirements, voters' anti-Republican mood could make it difficult for the party to recruit high-quality candidates and to raise money for individual campaigns and party committees.
If this sounds like a vicious cycle, that's because it is. A hostile political environment often results in a rash of retirements, tougher recruiting, and poor fundraising -- all of which feed the pessimism that can lead to still more retirements, even more-dismal recruiting, and anemic fundraising. Around and around it goes.
Sure, some Republican entities will outraise Democratic entities but so what? They're in panic mode and they've got the deep pockets as well as a long-established small donor program. All the money in the world won't change the facts on the ground, and with dispirited, second-tier candidates (Alan Keyes, anyone?) that money won't make a damn bit of difference. You can't buy the truth, you can only earn it. And by now we all know two other things: (1) Republican losses in 2006 were tiny fractions away from being devastating and (2) there's a boatload of GOP seats to defend in 2008, plus the open ones.
Cook returns to his "Obviously, this picture could still change" mode, but how?? The people want what the D's are selling, and even if some of the policies are unworkable, no one is going to find out before 2008 because either the Senate Republicans or the Looney Toon War Mongering Idiot Man Child Dilletante President won't allow them to become law.
Cook does, however, throw cold water on the notion that "Congressional Republicans had counted on the Democrats to self-destruct" noting that "Nancy Pelosi whom Republicans expected to lead her party off an ideological cliff has not been the Speaker Pelosi running the House." No rest for the Weary Elephant there. And God knows, Iraq--the GOP's Everlasting Gobstopper of a poison pill--will not get better. Nor will the economy grow in the next two years, when the only debate is between recession and soft landing. Nor will a terrorist attack, real or staged, help the GOP's standing, since that's just a failure to protect us that gets rung up on the Maladministration. Finally, nor will an attack on Iran. My own theory is, the moment that happens we will see an impeachment resolution of the President, the Vice President, and the Secretaries of State and Defense introduced in the House and to Hell with whether the Senate removes--all gloves and bets are off.
Cook's final observation:
Perhaps the Republicans' best hope is that Democrats will get cocky enough over the next year and a half that they will end up overreaching -- making the sort of mistakes that Republicans had counted on from the start. The biggest threat to Democratic control is overconfidence. If Democrats lose their majorities in 2008, it may well be because they defeated themselves, not that the weakened, dispirited GOP found a way to beat them.
Back to my original point: The Congressional Calendar. The Democrats don't have enough time to self-destruct. This, plus the fact that the Republicans can't afford to let them. The one wild card is immigration; even if the Dems and the GOP act together in the Senate again, the Dems had better include some stiff border sealant since that's the one piece of major legislation that we could see pass both chambers this year and be signed into law.
Cook's feed is located here. It may all, indeed, add up to a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, and a steep, steep hill for the GOP's presidential candidate against whomever the Dems send out.
Bad days for the Pugs, and they earned them. Just watch them steal glances at the clock, like players on a team that knows every play, every possession, is of magnified importance because the chances to catch up are dwindling.
Tick. Tick. Tick ...