The Des Moines Register examines Tom Vilsack's departure from the 2008 presidential race: Edwards' campaign rides on Iowa: Vilsack's exit from race raises expectations for front-runner:
If any candidate inherits something from Tom Vilsack's departure from the Democratic presidential campaign, it's John Edwards.
What he gets: Pressure.
The former Iowa governor's campaign hinged on winning his home state's caucuses, the start of a fiercely competitive nominating gauntlet. Vilsack's decision Friday to quit the race shifts much of the burden of expectations in the caucuses to Edwards, the front-runner in early Iowa polls.
"Edwards has as much or more riding on Iowa's outcome as any of the others," University of Iowa political science professor Peverill Squire said.
I think where this article misses the point is that the pressure really hasn't gone up for Edwards so much as it has for every other candidate. Here's why:
As the Register's Thomas Beaumont points out:
The former North Carolina senator's popularity among Iowa party activists has endured since his strong second-place finish in the 2004 caucuses, and survived losing the vice presidency and the entry of new, nationally popular rivals into the 2008 race.
Edwards' ~25% support in Iowa now is more than THREE YEARS old. That's a long time, and that's going to be awfully hard to shake. In Iowa's caucus system, 25% support going in translates as high as 40% support on caucus night, as supporters of non-viable candidates move over to the front-runners' column in certain precincts. Iowans know Edwards, and they like him. The more Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama fight over Hollywood donors, the more appeal Edwards is going to have for Iowans.
As Edwards points out, the pressure of Vilsack's departure is on those candidates who were looking for an excuse not to do well in Iowa:
"It raises expectations for everyone," he said in a Des Moines Register interview Saturday.
"Other candidates might have used it as an excuse for not doing well," he added, referring to Vilsack's presence in the race. "That excuse is now gone."
But almost every poll of likely Democratic caucusgoers in Iowa taken in the past year has shown Edwards on top.
Whether his early lead in Iowa has been a factor of residual loyalty to his 2004 campaign or Edwards' vigilant attention to Iowa since then, his status as the Iowa front-runner is enhanced by Vilsack's withdrawal, Squire said.
Edwards was the front-runner in Iowa even before Vilsack dropped out. The expectations for him already were very high. Now, with the native son out of the race nearly a year before the caucus, none of the other candidates can blame a poor finish on any disadvantage. Everyone has plenty of time to campaign, and the conventional wisdom is that Clinton and Obama will both have more money than Edwards to get their message out.
There's one additional element of pressure on Clinton and Obama that will be less of a factor for Edwards: He's more familiar with this grueling, day-in-day-out process than they are.
A lot can happen in the months before the caucuses, Edwards said. "I think we would expect to be competitive if the caucus were held today, but the caucus is not held today," he said. "We have a long campaign in front of us and I've been through this before."