With the March Star Poll results in and Weslsey Clark's name not included, I think it's time we step back and take a look at why Clark has (not?) run out of time...
It seems that Clark's numbers in the Kos strawpoll have been declining for a long time. He reached as high as 35% in August of 2005, and then went down to a pitiful 14% in the last poll (that his name was even included). Such a shame that such a great candidate is dead. I guess we will have to settle for less than our best this time around....oh well.....BUT WAIT. I sense something, hmmm. Let me take a look at the numbers again. Wow. I see. in August of 2005, at his peak in the DailyKos poll, Clark recieved a jawdropping 3356 votes! What a showing! Then when his empire came crashing down in February he raked in a measly 3838! He supporters are obviously crumbling, seeing as his total votes declined by....uh er...rather increased by 482. What a revelation! The number of Clark VOTERS in the poll has actually increased 14% since 2005. I know that others have increased much more rapidly than Clark etc., etc., but the notion that Clark's supporters are being "absorbed" by John Edwards is just not true.
Now let's get into this for real. Let's take a look at history as it does tend to repeat itself. Looking at statewide polls done by the American Research Group, I see of lot that say Clark - 2%. It seems that about 2% of democrats are committed Clark supporters in most places. His numbers, however, are better in some individiual states, have a look --
Nevada
Clark - 4%
Pennsylvania
Clark - 6%
New Mexico
Clark - 5%
Arkansas
Clark - 8%
In most state by state polls, Clark beats out the lower tear such as Kucinich, Gravel, and Dodd, and usually runs even with Biden and Richardson, often besting even them. And...he's not even in the race. It's not even being speculated in the mainstream media that he is going to enter the race. But he is polling as well in most places as Biden and Richardson, who...are in the race. "So what?" you ask, "the guy's got some support. But what makes you think if he gets in the race it's gonna be any different, pal?" What an excellent question. Let's rewind to August 26th of 2003, about 3 weeks before Clark declared his candidacy. Here is the Gallup Poll results.
Gallup Poll 8/26/03
Clark - 2%
Damn. There was no chance that that 2% was going to move at all! Right? Right?...Wrong. Just two weeks later with more and more talk of a potential run, the new Gallup Poll is released...
Gallup Poll 9/10/03
Clark - 10%
Wow. Did you see that? An 8% jump in just two little weeks! Then, the day comes. September 17, 2003, General Wesley Clark enters the race and declares his candidacy for President of the United States. Four days later a new Gallup poll is released. WARNING: These results may shock you:
Gallup Poll 9/21/03
Clark - 22%
Dean - 13%
Kerry - 11%
Gephardt - 11%
In 2003 when General Clark rolled out his campaign over the course of less than one month, he succeeded in jumping in the polls by 20% and many of you think it is too late for him. Tell me how that makes any sense at all. I know it didn't last because Clark's campaign had other problems, including his uncomfortableness with the media, but those problems are in the past and to count Clark out this early would be to insult the intelligence of our party.
A reason why I find Kos's analysis of Clark so incredibly far off the mark has to do with time left. Clark has said he does not want to make the same mistake twice in declaring to late. Kos says it's too late, he "takes Clark at his word" and uses this as justification not to include Clark in the last strawpoll. Let's flashback again. In fact, I'm going to make a timeline for you. Here we go, 2003:
September 17th, 2003 - Clark Declares Candidacy
October
November
December
January 19, 2004 - Iowa Caucus
Clark was in the race for 124 days before Iowa and raised $30 million
Now 2007:
March 24, 2007 - It's "too late" for Clark to enter (chuckle, chuckle)
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January 14, 2007 - Iowa Caucus
If Clark entered today, he would only be in the race for a very brief 269 days before Iowa, obviously too small a window for his candidacy, right? NO. If he entered the race today he would be in it for 172 days longer than he was last time before the voting starts. Folks, we have a long time to go and the window for General Clark is wide open, espeically after it apears Gore is not going to run.
That brings me to the various "prerequisite" situtaions that Clark is supposedly looking for to run. I don't know what they are specifically, but I would assume that one of those is Gore not running. After Gore's testifying about Global Warming to the Congress and his laying out of very good, but very extreme policies, it seems like he is probably not going to get in the race. I could be wrong but I am guessing he will only get in at this point if months down the road Hillary and Obama tear eachother to pieces and the republicans unite behind one candidate overwhelmingly. All of this seems to me to be pointing to a Clark candidacy in the not too distant future.
At this moment in time, we all know that General Clark is working literally around the clock to stop a potential war with Iran. What I find so great is that he doesn't seem to be interested in positioning himself politically, but rather actually influencing policy. That was a frustration he expressed on the radio several weeks ago, that if you run for president, people think you are just playing politics when he REALLY, TRULY, HONESTLY wants to change POLICY. So General Clark is out fighting the good fight right now and doing what he believes is the right thing to do. Isn't that the kind of candidate we want?
I think I've gone over the main points, but the conclusion is clear. Wesley Clark has plenty of time to declare, in fact, if he declares now, he might even be a little early.