I Seek a Vehicle With a Paradigm Shift
Since 30% of global warming CO2 comes from what we drive, I have called every company that might make the mass market electric car to save us from ourselves. So I interviewed Tom Gage, the CEO of AC Propulsion, who made the lovely but pricey conversion of the t-zero that I see around Berkeley, because I hoped they might be the EV company to make an electric car for not just a few rich kossacks but for the rest of us, in time to save the planet.
Turns out Tom Gage was with Chrysler in the early 90's. The most surprising thing he said, coming as he does from Detroit where he was a manager in Chrysler Corp.'s regulatory strategy office for eight years, was the same thing The Prophet Al Gore recommended last week:
We Must Tax Carbon
Gage said the way to get Carbon down is to tax it: raising CAFE standards won't do it. The Prophet Al Gore had recommended a similarly radical idea in our tax structure Wednesday - shift tax from our paychecks to tax our carbon emissions instead. The most widespread example of a carbon tax would be a gas tax, which comprises almost 70% of the cost of gas in the UK, and which resulted in an electric car at a government-subsidised 9,995 British Pounds and with free parking thrown in as well. Zero tax and Zero CO2, designed as the N.I.C.E. car for nice peopleover there - sorry, nice people
here in the banana republic of these illforgotten states. It's illegal to import low carbon competition for gas guzzlers.
That might upset The Oiligarchy.
The Democrats are trying to develop legislation for cap and trade incentives and raising CAFE standards in the process of about 30 climate change hearings since January, essentially dragging the flatearthers Republicans along for the ride. Gore supports higher CAFE standards. He was asked about cap and trade. The Goracle said forthrightly, I do not think it needs to be either or. I support both cap and trade AND a carbon tax.
Although Gage said the same thing, he was not hopefull that any congress member would risk a carbon tax. He told me that back in 1990 when he was with Chrysler, they begged congress unsuccessfully to tax gas because it was the only way they could sell higher CAFE cars to consumers.
His Alternative Business Model
As a refugee from the Detroit he sounded comfortable with an alternative approach of running a small production company converting about one vehicle a month and did not seem to be driven (as I am) by any messianic vision of his company becoming a mass producer of electric vehicles. He said, no its just realistic. As someone who has worked in huge companies in the garment industry versus owning my own three, and in my own having both been involved in running frantic mass production versus a more leisurely luxury design market, I had some sympathy and understanding with his lack of interest in mass markets. However as someone who is an alarmist about global warming, I found his attitude baffling. Whereas in my industry, a mass market destroys rather than benefits the planet, in his industry electric cars could save the planet.
His Is Not The Company To Massproduce EVs
But he is realistic about what he can do outside of Detroit, and its not to make the $15,000 electric cars I want someone to make. His AC Propulsion conversions are not cheap, typically $55,000 plus the cost of the donated vehicle. He told me that because the industry is so hugely capital and engineering intensive (much more so than the garment industry), the only new companies have all come from Asia where they have had strong government backing for decades.
Japan gave hybrid buyers 50% rebates.
Electric and hybrid electric vehicles can receive a purchase subsidy of up to 50% of the incremental cost of a vehicle under the Clean Energy Vehicle Introduction Project funded by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
He Recommends The Tax Increase Incrementally
He said only a gradually but predictably increasing gas tax, going up at a steady rate of 50 cents a year: by the time gas reached $10 a gallon, people would switch. That seemed depressingly slow to me - another 20 years.
Hmmm. By that time we'll all be kneedeep in melting ice caps. So I asked him about Europe being apparently ahead of us in the electric vehicle market, they are at least available now, and their gas tax has them paying $6 - $8 bucks a gallon, he agreed that even at the $6 gas level there would be the beginning of a push for mass market availability. But he said Europe is really not much farther ahead than us, saying that Europe has very few EVs, and has never had a significant number of freeway-capable full function EVs. Most European EVs are low-powered. Attitudes toward EVs vary significantly among countries. France has supported them strongly, but Germany very little.
He Suggests Carrot AND Stick
Gage said that the reason raising CAFE standards alone would not do it is because you need to also incentivise the consumer to seek the lower-carbon options. Both the carrot and the stick are needed in tandem, saying - If the tax was certain, that people knew it would be continuing to go up at 50 cents a year, it would not need to be a sudden jump, people would start to reassess their car choices and there would be a commensurate gradual change in the vehicles produced to meet that demand. So we need a carrot for the consumer: save money on gas as well as the stick of the higher CAFE standards. This would make electric vehicles a part of the mix for the mainstream - which he considered to be a $25,000 average vehicle. As a Honda buyer I thought a massmarket average is more like $15,000 but I could be wrong. As a woman my interestlevel in the car market has been at zilch till global warming became an issue to me. Feel free to educate me, experts.
But Has Lost Faith in Government Solutions
Gage had not heard Gore testify. When I told him Gore had suggested the same thing: raising carbon taxes, he was quite surprised. He said he would vote for any politician who advocates higher gas taxes, but he wasn't holding his breath, saying - I just do not think it is going to happen anytime soon. He has no interest or faith in congress being able to change anything and seemed bemused that anyone would bother listening to all the climate change hearings. He has no time to, saying my time is better spent putting cars on the road. Others are better suited for talking to politicians. I play the hearings from my computer from realplayer Capitolhearings.orgat my table while I work, instead of listening to the radio. Design is a leftbrain mindless thing, you don't need your brain free to think about your work, so every day I hear just how hard Democrats are working to try and devise legislation on global warming. I begged him to at least testify now at a hearing about the need to couple a steadily increasing small gas tax with CAFE to get change. Especially since The Goracle had just brought it up it would seem that he could educate congress about the need for this to be coupled with CAFE in order for CAFE to work.
He Avoids Fighting With Detroit
Tom Gage (pictured) has developed a novel business model for ACPropulsion away from Detroit with his production line of one-off conversions, utilising regular auto companies for everything but the internal combustion engine. When he worked for Chrysler he had way more than enough of dealing with the government. His interest in electric cars initially appeared to be more forn-oil based than my own carbon-reduction based interest, but he corrected me via email (after my first disastrous attempt at direct info gleaning, I had doublechecked my transcript with him) saying that the energy security angle is more compelling to a much broader audience than global warming, he's merely choosing his battles wisely.
I asked him if he would consider attending any Step It Up actions next month, organised by Bill McKibben and he wrote that he had read The End of Naturewhen it came out in The New Yorker in 1990. In fact he'd attached it to an impassioned memo and passed it up the chain of command at Chrysler. It is obvious the globe is warming, but for 17 years (again) the opposition has been able to bog down debate with cause and effect arguments.
It was news to him that other innovation-industry CEO's from Walmart (pioneering big-box store daylighting ceilings) to electric utilities like my own PG&E have all come before our new congress and given excellent suggestions on global warming legislation that could move us forward on solutions, like PG&E's own brilliantly simple example of incenting Public Utilities to lower CO2 rather than merely sell more electricity.
Are There Any Shortages Looming?
Are their any raw material shortage concerns slowing our ride towards an electric car future? I asked him if the lithium batteries involve any parts that could run out if the entire US auto market was electric. He really didn't think it would get to 100% of the auto market: like I said he was not as committed to it as I am.
But he said theres enough interchangeabiliy of raw materials for the lithium battery technology and no potential shortages that would prevent electric cars being a mass market technology even at 100% of our market. But the patent for the NiMH batteries that ran the EV1 despite still working well in the few electric vehicles that GM didn't bury, is now owned by Detroit, so I am still concerned that the new Lithium batteries will suffer the same fate...
EV Builder No EVangelist
He replied that my thinking EVs can or will achieve 100% market share is a symptom of my lack of interest in cars. I still disagree. I believe we will all one day dump the combustion engine for running cars, like we don't use combustion engines to run our computers or our washing machines and fridges. If we were offered the choice now of running these machines using an internal combustion engine which literally keeps running out of gas, would we jump at the chance?
Would you buy a fridge that needed an internal combustion engine? That causes 30% of global warming gases? That required endless foreign wars to fuel it? That was subject to peak oil? Of course not. Electric motors are the superior technology. The combustion engine is done.
I think the car market suffers from being driven by men who attend auto shows only: the equivalent of Fashionistas. The combustion engine is dirty and the gasoline running it is warming the planet. Its not the only way to run machines. Automakers get a skewed view of what actual people would want if they had a choice presented. I didn't give a damn myself about how cars ran till global warming woke me up.
Speed and Power in EVs
Last we talked a bit about braking and technical problems with the 3 wheeled $12,000 electric Zap I test drove last week in Alameda. The ZAP was too slow to accelerate or brake which felt unsafe: its max speed is 40 mph and its intended more for safer settings like hospital grounds and planned commuities I guess. It is so silent that it has a beep beep warning it makes as it backs up to warn bystanders, just like the electric vehicles in HomeDepot and CostCo. But if someone suddenly ran out in front of me: too bad. The brakes are slow and it doesn't meet crash test ratings. So they make it 3 wheeled like a motorbike which also does not apparently need to meet crash test ratings. Despite these limitations it has been selling briskly from this tiny Alameda storefront: one to two a week since opening 3 weeks ago, where theres only room for 3 vehicles on display.
ACPropulsions EBox described by enthusiast atev world.com
He said his far higher priced electric vehicles - engineered by Alan Cocconi of the original GM EV1 - are not remotely like this very poorly made neighbourhood electric vehicle market. Well Duh! These drive like a comparable car in the luxury (albeit gas-combustion: UGH!!! ) car market, acceleration speed and braking not being a problem. Their t-zero WON the racing car Michelen Bibbendum Challengeso speed is no problem, obviously. And a mass market electric car in America would include meeting normal braking standards and speed and acceleration standards like his cars do.
We Need A Vehicle With a Paradigm Shift
I think that there would be a bigger market for electric vehicles than he does sooner, because like many in the auto business Gage seemed barely interested in global warming as a driver of the electric car market. Its easy to get so involved in running a business that you don't see the forest suddenly springing up outside the trees. I think the electric car could become as ubiquitous and well-designed as the iPod or the apple notebook. I can well imagine a sedan version of his t-zero that could definitey get the kids and the dog to the beach, and you to work which is what more people need than a sportscar. I think there's enough of us enraged consumers like this kossack who are even now almost repelled by having to get into a gas guzzler to get to work in because of global warming and Iraq, that the market tipping point could be reached with a gas tax resulting in even just $5 gas.
A Gas Tax Solves The China 'n' India Issue
Incidentally, Gores carbon tax idea would neatly solve the insoluble RW talking point which is repeated ad nauseum at every energy hearing and goes "I won't stop till ChinanIndia have to stop too" (listening to these hearings I think - frameshoppers listenup! - its not the mommy part v the daddy party - we are the mommy party versus the kiddie party!)
Because The Goracle suggested that we carbontax imports as well. So a carbon tax would work to quell Republican fears about ChinanIndia as well as spur the growth of (horrors) innovation-based industries. They do seem drawn like moths to a flame back again and again to the polluting extraction-based industries, whether forcibly with plunder and war or by just heading right over to nuclear when the're backed out of coal and gas.
Plus Theres Peak Oil
I know allyas Kossacks know about Hubberts peak oil, and know that Ghawah Is Dead! but the average consumer doesn't yet, they have been following Britney, also very important. Ongoing gas price increases via predictable gas tax increases might alert even the most ill-informed consumer of the dangers ahead.
And A Gas Tax Worked In Europe
At one of these energy hearings recently Chrysler’s
LaSorda said, his company was already building a fleet of cars that met that 10-year out standards, today - We already do it; it’s in Europe. The fleet average in Europe is 36mpg, U.S. 24-25 mpg. Why the 50% difference? European approach to policies:
highly taxed gas...
So Detroit says it. The Goracle says it. ACPropulsions Toma Gage says it. Europe does it. If WE got behind the carbon tax, I think we could change the world.
So: Should We Fear A Gas Tax?
Could a carbon tax be kind of like the dreaded cut and run? Remember before the elections, we were so worried about losing on Nov 7th because the neanderthals called us the cut and run Defeatocrats? That sure ah...backfired on them! The American people agreed with us kossacks that we should cut this crap and run our own country right, before exporting the blessings of liberty and democracy abroad.
Could a bold idea like taxing carbon be acceptable now even in America? If congress is too scared to propose this could we let them know differently, just as we did in November with Cut and Run?