Just a few minutes ago on Heading Left's Blog Talk Radio show, Joe Trippi made some news and predicted a brokered Democratic convention.
"I may be the first idiot foolish enough to say it out loud, but we could be looking at something unheard of in the modern era, someone going into convention with only 30%-40% of delegates."
Also: "What could happen is that we’re headed for a brokered convention...Edwards, Hillary and Obama may have enough cash before Iowa even happens to go all the way. Polls are all basically in dead heats. Not one is going to blow out the other two. If they keep this pace up, they’d have enough money to go all the way. I never thought I’d say this in modern politics that it’s possible to have a brokered convention...fighting it down to the last state."
Finally, Trippi raised the prospect of Al Gore becoming the nominee in a brokered convention scenario: "If there was a brokered convention going on, that [Al Gore coming in and winning the nomination] could be how that plays out.
My notes of the conversation so far are after below. Check out the show right here...on until 1 PM eastern time, then available in archive.
Remarkable online numbers, number of donors for Obama. The biggest thing wasn’t the amt. of money, it was the 100,000 contributors. The real problem for rest of field is that those 100,000 people, 90% of them gave $100 or less, most are capable of giving again. Very easy for Obama to replicate this number in the future. Dean campaign grew every quarter; people got friends. Clinton campaign problem (built on maxed out) – can’t go back to them. Only so many friends you can ask to give $2,300. Even if other campaigns wake up tomorrow and said, "hey, let’s chase him." The real problem is, you grow 30,000 new low dollar donors tomorrow, Obama’s not going to stand still. Hard for anyone to catch up.
There’s been a lot of criticism of Obama’s stance on the Bush veto. Edwards aggressive outreach to netroots. Can Edwards pick up disillusioned Obama supporters? Not likely. Once people are in, made commitment, they tend to stay in. Edwards is doing a great job...sad day when $14 million means you’re not good enough, not going to make it. They have a strong netroots, have to start building that. It’s still early. Obama may disappoint the whole way...huge crowds for Ted Kennedy, couldn’t live up to it. I have a feeling that people have idealized view of Obama as well. In a lot of ways, it may be very tough for him to live up to that idealized view. It’s going to be tough for him to keep up this energy/excitement for over a year. Others could grow as he slows down.
James - Obama has a very traditional consulting group behind him.
David Axelrod is one of media consultants who I’d get into the trenches with. Warrior, fighter. Tremendous capacity to think outside the box. People thought it was all sweetness and light on the Dean campaign. Every campaign has a mix of people who want to do something different, outside the box, and others who came up through the system and think you’re crazy.
We didn’t have Facebook or MySpace of YouTube in the Dean era. We had MeetUp.com. There are a lot of incredible social networking tools. We’ll see a lot of innovation. People just getting their sea legs right now...only the first quarter. Clinton campaign is doing the block and tackle approach. More innovation in the Obama and Edwards campaign in terms of the online community. Clinton campaign is trying to do it.
The Dean campaign raised $400,000 online this quarter. Hillary raised 10 times the amount. They’re doing really well. But there’s a blend of being bold and announcing virtually, and unfortunately, they do it in traditional, sitting on the couch. Sort of a mix of established and new. More boldness, willingness to let loose of control in Edwards and Obama.
If I were her, I would have announced on Day #1 that we were going to do this different and not accept a check over $100. She could have done it differently, could have been a different type of campaign. 5 million American women give $100 each to change history. Why haven’t any of these candidates done that? It would have been an amazing thing, really opened up the grassroots/netroots to her, not possible the way she’s currently running.
Is Hillary still the frontrunner? What could happen is that we’re headed for a brokered convention. One of the reasons people usually drop because they run out of money. (Dean, Hart) Edwards, Hillary and Obama may have enough cash before Iowa even happens to go all the way. Polls are all basically in dead heats. Not one is going to blow out the other two. If they keep this pace up, they’d have enough money to go all the way. I never thought I’d say this in modern politics that it’s possible to have a brokered convention...fighting it down to the last state.
What are they going to do with all this money. There’s only so much money you can spend in Iowa. They’re all gonna stay in and keep fighting...Iowa, NH...February 5. If it’s still a jump ball on 2/5, it keeps going after 2/5. I may be the first idiot foolish enough to say it out loud, but we could be looking at something unheard of in the modern era, someone going into convention with only 30%-40% of delegates. That’s where Hillary’s insider ability to get the super delegates might come in handy. This is gonna be a long, long haul.
Nobody living knows how to run a brokered convention.
The last time someone went all the way was 1980 with Kennedy and Carter. Massive fights at that convention. Two 800-pound gorillas fighting all the way. Edwards is a 600-pound gorilla. Could be a really interesting convention. Networks might actually have something to cover this time.
Al Gore could still get in. If there was a brokered convention going on, that could be how that plays out. If everyone has a third of the delegates...who knows. The only guy who could still get in this thing on the Democratic side would be Al Gore. Fred Thompson on the Republican side.