(Note: I am currently in a French class at college, and love France and its history a great deal. I'm no expert, though, so feel free to chime in yourself)
The results for France's Presidential election - the 1st round, with the runoff on May 6th - are in. The loser is Jean-Marie LePen, the racist xenophobe who spent time in a French jail for denying the Holocaust. The winner is France.
In 2002, the then 3-time loser LePen drew 17% of the vote in the 1st round. In the United States, that's nowhere near enough to win, let alone get any electoral votes (see Perot, Ross). In France, it was enough to give him a ticket to the runoff - and political ignonimy.
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With a number of left-wing candidates drawing votes from Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin, LePen was able to squeak his way into a faceoff with President Jacques Chirac. In the defense of those left-wing "spoilers", no one saw this coming. It was widely assumed (according to all that I've read) that Jospin would face Chirac in a rematch of their 1995 campaign (Chirac won 53-47%). The campaign was boring (by French standards), and turnout was lower than in previous elections (although much higher than here in the United States). Think of Walter Mondale running against Dick Cheney, and you have what was assumed to be the two choices for the runoff. (No offense to Vice-President Mondale, but he's not exactly known for his charisma)
Instead, France got Dick Cheney facing off against David Duke.
When I remember the comments posted on the political blogs in April 2002 (back when it was in its infancy), a number of bloggers compared the Chirac-LePen runoff to Louisiana 1991, when former Klansmen leader Duke faced ex-Governor (and convicted felon) Edwin Edwards. "Vote for the Crook, not the Fascist" was the common refrain for the left then, and in 2002 for France. This is admittedly somewhat unfair to Chirac (who has fallen victim to demonization in the American press for opposing Bush over Iraq), but it justified voting for the UMP incumbent for France's left. And so the French, some wearing clothespins on their noses, voted overwhelmingly for Chirac (82-18%).
But in some parts of France, LePen managed to get over 30% of the vote. The septenugarian uber-nationalist had a voter base in France far beyond what anyone had expected. His showing also justified his return to the political battlefield in 2007, at the age of 78. His political party "The National Front" (FN in France)seemed stronger than ever.
In France, there seemed to be some degree of shame, that a man so odious to their political mainstream would be one of two men who would be the next President of the 5th Republic. In addition, since LePen had not polled as high as he finished in the 1st round in 2002, it became clear that there was a portion of the French electorate that would not admit to supporting him, but would do so anyway. This "unknown" meant that LePen could potentially count on higher support in 2007 once again than the polls showed.
With Nicolas Sarkozy leading the race as the UMP's candidate, and with the Socialist candidate Segolene Royal running neck-and-neck with Francois Bayrou (of the UDF)for 2nd just one month before the election, LePen had the chance to have lightening strike twice.
Could "la revanche" occur? Could France be faced with a choice between a man who calls the poor of his country "scum" and promises to clean "them" out with a vacuum cleaner - and LePen?
It could very well have happened. A week ago, polls showed LePen within 5% of both Bayrou and Royal. One of the last polls taken even showed LePen in 3rd (at the 17% mark). If he could get his "hidden" voters to the polls...
The "spectre" of LePen is, I think, what drew so many Frenchmen and Frenchwomen to the polls today. The high turnout (nearly 85%), particularly in the banlieu (the "French suburbs" where the poor and recent immigrants are often crowded together) amazed even political optimists in France. The high turnout did not really benefit Sarkozy or Royal - they finished 4 points apart from each other, or roughly the average of what pre-election polls were saying (30-26%). And while Bayrou drew impressive support for a relatively unknown 3rd party (as of several months ago), his proportion of support (18%) did not change much either.
LePen finished with 11% of the vote, according to the national tallies. If this result holds, it will be his weakest showing since 1974.
In 1988 he drew 14%; in 1995, 15%. And in 2002 of course he finished with 18% in the runoff. All indications were that he might well hit 20% this time, that if enough Socialists backed Bayrou then LePen could squeak by Royal.
Not this time, Monsieur LePen. France has spoken, and you have lost.
LePen has proclaimed throughout the 2007 campaign that the three major candidates were "stealing" his ideas. To this I would say, "Pas Certainment!" It is true that Sarkozy has flirted with FN's rank-and-file before, but he got in a nasty public spat with LePen over the UMP candidate's background (his family is from Hungary, although he himself is French). If you look at Sarkozy's platform, he does indeed call for a total economic revampment of France, and for a tougher security policy (and I disagree with his rhetoric). But even Sarkozy is nowhere near LePen when it comes to his statments, his policies or his philosophy. If elected, "Sarko" would be bad for France - but LePen would have been the death of it. As for Royal and Bayrou, neither have approached the policies or rhetoric of LePen.
Let me be clear: the May 6th runoff is vitally important for France. A Sarkozy victory might well lead to economic upheaval and social unrest, whereas a Royal victory would lead to positive (if small) change in both the social and economic sphere. But April 22nd, 2007 has gone a long way in undoing the damage of April 21st, 2002. Today, the people of France soundly rejected Jean-Marie LePen and his hideous policies. Today, they announced to the world that they do not want to openly embrace hate and fear, but instead return to a contest of ideas and policies.
I truly believe this is the end of LePen's political career. He will be 83 in 2012, and his poor showing today is unlikely to improve with age (unlike French wine). His daughter Martine may take over the FN, but she lacks his reputation and his ability to hold the far-right together. I expect that the FN itself will move to the left in an attempt to win mainstream support for 2012. In the process, it will lose much, if not all of its dangerous rhetoric and became modern-day Republicans - which is bad enough, to be true.
Today, France wrote the political obituary of Jean-Marie LePen. And thankfully so, for while the next President will not be known for another two weeks, his poor showing can provide comfort for France, Europe and observers of the 5th Republic alike. La France ne provide pas pour la haine - France does not accept hate.
Monsiuer LePen, you are out of ink. Adieu, and take your rotten ideological carcass with you.