The earth still turns on its axis, the rivers still flow downhill, and endless cycles of violence still beget more violence. No one with half a brain was surprised this week to learn that the Republicans' "surge" in Iraq resulted in its own counter-surge of even more violence. The same pattern has been repeated so many times in history, you wonder how anyone could think it would go any other way.
As is his custom, Bush tried to lie about it, but the attempt was so lame that it left people of both parties shaking their heads. When the Administration counts the number of civilian deaths from the conflict, it has started leaving out deaths from bombs. Why would they do that? Aren't people killed by bombs just as dead as those killed in other ways? Charlie Rose had a chance to ask Mr. Bush this question directly, and here's his priceless reply:
If the standard of success is no car bombings or suicide bombings, we have just handed those who commit suicide bombings a huge victory.
This is called a classic state of denial. What gets measured gets done. Bush has given up on stopping civilian bombings, so he's going to cover his eyes and stop measuring them.
The major Republican candidates for president are on-board with Mr. Bush's lack of strategy. As far as they know, there is no option save more violence. It's the only solution they understand, to act out their anger and embarrassment at failure, to compound the failure by failing to control their emotions. "There is no Plan B," John McCain said.
Yes there is a Plan B, but McCain isn't man enough to do it. Nor are Bush or Giuliani or Romney. The most powerful nation in the world should have the self-confidence to do it. Will it?
We're stuck in a no-win situation, but that's only because we lack the will to create a better situation, that we can win. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said "The war is lost", and Republicans whined that he was surrendering. Far from it. As long as we think of Iraq, and the larger problem of terrorism, as a war, we'll be stuck in this no-win situation. But if we shift the strategic frame to where we can take the initiative, where we're not just mindlessly reacting to the latest atrocities, we have a much better chance.
Plan B, what a president with real balls (man or woman) would do, is this: admit that our occupation of Iraq is a mistake; make a strategic retreat by withdrawing our forces, apologizing, and paying reparations to show genuine humility; then re-engaging in a larger and more comprehensive way, coming back twice as hard, with more powerful and appropriate weapons: diplomacy, intelligence, economic power, and moral leadership.
Iraqis might celebrate in the streets. They might say things like "a great nation has been brought to its knees," or "we vanquished the Great Satan," or "America is weak." Sticks and stones. Can we take it? Are we big enough to take our lumps and move on? It takes a mighty nation to exercise the virtue of humility and make it work. It takes a great leader to try it. It would be strategic surprise on an historic scale. Osama bin Laden would have a seizure.
If Iraqis feel strong and empowered, that might be just the thing they need to resist their own country's divisions and authoritarian forces. They might feel like a real nation. And it's no skin off our nose. We're the world's most powerful nation now and we'll be the world's most powerful nation afterward as well.
Do we have enough confidence in our own righteousness to do the right thing? To show some respect to the people of Iraq by letting them settle their own civil war, negotiating with them as fellow human beings to purchase their oil and rebuild the economy we have destroyed? To open a dialogue with Islamic leaders around the world to address the mutual fearfulness that leads to pointless violence and terrorism? I doubt we'll see such courage from this president. I hope we will from the next one.
h/t to skwimmer for encouraging this thinking and for a sigline that says it all: "1. Withdraw. 2. Apologize. 3. Pay reparations. It's called Honor."