Given the consistent mendacity of the Bush administration, it is truly astonishing that political observers expect some kind of moment of truth to occur in August or September that renders a verdict on the success of the modest escalation of the Iraq war generally termed the "surge."
What is far more likely, in my view, is that BushCo will brazenly declare that the surge has succeeded and demand further escalation based on that "success." The collapse of reason among the general public has reached the point that all talking points are evaluated based on how frequently they are heard on television. Come September, the "surge" will be made a success by declaration. Here is how I believe the scheme will work:
- A careful search for statistics of improvement in Iraq will be conducted to produce a set of data that shows that, say, more traffic lights are in service and more high school diplomas have been awarded because of the surge. These statistics will be offered as "proof" that the surge is working. Petraeus will solemnly declare that there are "encouraging signs" that the surge tactics are working.
- BushCo will make a full-court propaganda press, blasting out continuous claims of improved metrics to drown out reports of steadily increasing casualties.
- Those who deny the success of the surge will be painted as defeatests and asked why selected measures are improving if the surge is not working.
- The "turnaround" created by the surge will be used as a rationale for further escalation. E.g., "Now that Petraeus has shown that his approach works, we have to give him more resources."
- Nothing will change. Defenders of the war will hide behind a wall of pro-war, pro-surge propaganda. Critics of the war will point to the increasingly hopeless condition of the US occupation.
- Republican presidential candidates will run on the big lie: the war is being won because of a brilliant new counter-insurgency strategy.
- Democratic presidential candidates will appeal to a TV-addled public to listen to reason.
- The electorate will remain deeply confused and divide about the Iraq war. The Republicans will be defeated in 2008 by public anger over $5.00 gasoline.
Remember this diary when you hear that the "surge" has succeeded and that Bush is committing more forces to "Surge II - the sequel."