All our politicians seem to imagine that we can afford another few thousand American lives, another trillion or so dollars, and innumerable acts of violence against ordinary people who never did anything to us.
In this context we have Cheney's recent visit to Baghdad. Martin Sieff writes about why this has failed. More importantly, the very assumptions of his article, taken with some other reports, shows why the "surge" is suicidal. It is America's very military that is at stake.
But to Sieff:
The 2005 elections dealt a death blow to [Iraq's] fragile structures ...confirmed and strengthened the primacy of the Sunni and Shiite militias, as well as the Sunni insurgents, throughout the country. It is the militias that are the basic building blocks of what remains of Iraqi society. Therefore, the Iraqi national army and police remain ineffectual against them.
The short version of why Cheney couldn't get the Parliament to stay and get the oil deal done comes down to:
The political structure that the Bush administration deliberately created in Baghdad is therefore not only ineffectual, but its most powerful protagonists are determined to keep it so to prevent any constructive national policies that are not in their narrow sectarian interests from being implemented.
You should go read it, it's very dense and is drenched in realism. It includes a lot of information beyond just Cheney's "mission". And it bears on why the nation's representatives must in living in some alternate universe, where the servants are always polite and discreet.
A last quote from Sieff:
... "The U.S. forces being sent to Baghdad are going to be dispersed around different neighborhoods in order to help the local population more. ... However, the number of U.S. troops being sent appears far too few ...
...spreading the new U.S. troop contingent out that way "could make them far more vulnerable to attacks initially from the Sunni insurgents and eventually from Shiite militia forces too.
Let's make sure we know what that means exactly. Picture the forces we have in Baghdad divided into 77 units. Each unit takes over a building or buildings in a different neighborhood, surrounding it with concrete walls and other defenses. Inside with these mini-Green Zones are also Iraq police and/or army.
These neighborhoods, remember, are either Shia, Sunni, or mixed. According to recent studies a majority of Sunni and Shia both, over half, maybe pushing 60%, would like to see Americans dead. So, our forces will be dispersed, in buildings with armed Iraqi militia/Army, and surrounded on all sides by Shia and Sunni.
And what they'll be doing is conducting operations. Meaning shooting into buildings and breaking down doors and doing raids and the like. I guess when we have 100% of the Iraqis ready to kill us, then all these operations will finally start racking up huge successes in killing insurgents.
This is part of what's meant by the headline US warns of heavier casualties in Iraq. They are trying to get ahead of the curve, by saying "oh yeah, we predicted that, nothing to worry about." But in fact increasing casualties at much higher rates than we've seen so far are certain when you divide your forces and let your enemies surround you.
I feel there's a real chance we are seeing a historic blunder on the order of Cannae. But such disaster has more underpinnings than just King George the Fuckup's doings.
The military is literally breaking. We are running out of vehicles. We are running out of the ability to supply people. We are running the people into the ground. There have been several stories on this since December, and most all point to a July or August breakdown of forces.
So someone tell me about the political realities, and in the course of it explain to me what the political reality we'll have when, as promised by the government, we will be taking casualties far higher than so far.
What the hell are our politicians about? And why do we let them get away without stopping this madness? Why is this not the main issue of every day's news?
I dunno, maybe it's just me that sees a big hurt coming to our military in Iraq real soon.