There was once a Seinfeld episode where George Costanza's fortunes improve after doing the complete opposite of everything his instincts tell him.
Today's Democrats would do well to do everything the complete opposite of what elite figures such as Adam Nagourney tell them. And Broder, too. More below...
From the link to tomorrow's NY Times article:
[F]or any state still considering joining the rush to vote on Feb. 5 or earlier, here is some unsolicited advice: Don’t. At this point, your best chance for wielding real influence over the nominating process is to go later, not earlier.
Here’s why.
As of now, 22 states are holding their primaries or caucuses on Feb. 5 or are moving toward doing so, according to the National Association of Secretaries of State. And by that day, if the current schedule holds, at least five other states — Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and Florida — will have voted. That accounts for the political consensus that the nominees will effectively be anointed that day, since so many delegates will have been chosen...
[If there's no clear early frontrunner...]
In that case, the contest will be transformed from a fight for a decisive early triumph — that kind that wins the candidate the title "presumptive nominee," even if he or she hasn’t quite gotten enough delegates yet — into a sustained struggle to win a majority of the delegates. Aides to Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton said they are putting aside money for this possibility, which suggests how real it is.
Yes, the opposite is most likely true.
Want more proof?
I give you Mr. David Broder:
The true insanity of the altered presidential primary schedule does not become apparent until you actually lay out the proposed dates on a 2008 calendar.
The mad rush of states to advance their nominating contests in hopes of gaining more influence has produced something so contrary to the national interest that it cries out for action.
The process is not over. Just last week, Florida jumped the line by moving its primary up to Jan. 29, a week ahead of the Feb. 5 date when -- unbelievably -- 22 states may hold delegate selection contests, either primaries or caucuses.
Florida's move crowds the traditional leadoff primary in New Hampshire, which had been set for Jan. 22. And New Hampshire is unhappy about the competition from two caucuses planned even earlier in January, in Iowa and Nevada. So its secretary of state, William M. Gardner, who has unilateral authority to set the New Hampshire voting date, is threatening to jump the rivals, even if it means voting before New Year's Day.
Now why should this front-loaded primary season have David Broder and Ad Nag in high dudgeon?
Simple.
Because, chances are, a clear front-runner winner will be decided in early February. I would hope it'd be Feb. 9, to be exact, the day of the Washington State Democratic caucuses. But I digress.
A clear Democratic frontrunner means, that for 8 months there will be a Democratic "shadow President."
There'll likely be a Republican "shadow loser" too. He'd be a loser because he's got to choose - for 5 or so months - whether to criticize Bush, and risk losing the lizard base, or whether to keep mum, and risk losing the general electorate.
Yes, folks the front-loaded primary is a good thing.
It means, for example that John Edwards has already been to the Pacific Northwest - not just New Hampshire & Iowa.
It means a much more democratic and open process.
And that must have the Ad Nags and Broders of the world peeing in their pants.