The US is immediately sending six flights of weapons and ammunition to resupply the Lebanese Army in response to a call from Lebanese Prime Minister Fuoad Siniora. Siniora has vowed that the Lebanese army "will crush" the Palestinian militant group Fatah al Islam which is quartered in a refuge camp in Lebanon. The spokesman for the US military (see CNN article of same title dated today) said they are only supplying weaponry and no US soldiers will be involved. Many of the inhabitants of the camp have fled and are displaced Palestinians from Israeli settlements.
Several days ago I noted that that the Israelis decided they would take advantage of the clashes between Fatah and Hamas to, as they said, "root out or kill Hamas terrorists" because of rocket attacks from Gaza. Today, they put 33 Hamas ministers and mayors in an Israeli jail. They already had 44 from early last year. I concluded that this was no coincidence. The US had given Abbas money (50 million) to bulk up his Fatah security forces and those same forces had been trained in Jordon. Israel stepping into the dogfight was probably part of an agreement made between Abbas, Olmert and the US during the meeting held last month by Abbas and Olmert and attended by Condi Rice in Turkey.
The Lebanese Army deciding to shell an entire refuge camp because of militants who supposedly robbed a bank always appeared discordant to me. I mean, this is the army that stood by during the Hezbollah-Israel war of 2006. This army let Israel kill Lebanese civilians, destroy critical infrastructure, drop over 4 million US supplied cluster bomblets and still never showed up until the battle was fully over. I now believe that the current actions of Israel, Fatah, Siniora and the US are planned, and coordinated to be a pre-emptive strike at degrading Hamas and similar groups which they believe would aid Hezbollah and Iran in a summer offensive.
I also believe the summer offensive will be initiated by the US and Israel in sneak attacks which they hope will break the back and will of Hezbollah and Iran and will leave Syria defenceless and willing to join up rather than be included in the mayhem. I do not believe the extra carriers in the Persian Gulf are there just for show. Also please note the story carried in the Washington Post several days ago about the new plan B of Petraus and Ryan Crocker (ambassador to Iraq)which is to come online by May 31. The new focus in Iraq will be switched from training the Iraqi soldiers to rooting out bad guys in the ministries and the country and bringing in more regional imput.
To some, it probably sounds like I have taken whole cloth and made a quilt. I hope so. I hope I am just nuts, but I don't think so. Bush and Cheney want and need a huge "win" to carry them out of office and hopefully give some wind to Republican candidate wings in 2008. We know they have no scruples about doing whatever it takes to achieve a goal, even a crazy goal. We also know that they have plenty of people and groups encouraging them to take precisely this kind of action. I have to believe that the other Middle East countries such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt have agreed to the plan. You should not discount the fact that the Arab League is making significant overtures toward Israel re "a peace plan".
I believe that all of the recent meetings in the Middle East by Condi Rice have been for the single purpose of planning a summer offensive and that stories about her difficulties in obtaining consensus are deliberate misdirection. Based on the ingrained arrogance of the US and its allies (I am sure they believe the summer war result was a fluke and you just need more people with more bombs) we will see a summer blockbuster called "Shock and Awe, Part II".